421
FXUS64 KTSA 171023
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
423 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 406 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4
INCHES) EXISTS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 40S DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
A WINTER STORM IS STILL ON TRACK TO AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH EXTREME COLD FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. A WINTER
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA PLUS A FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE WIND CHILLS
WILL BE MORE MARGINAL...IN THE ZERO TO MINUS 10 DEGREE RANGE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FOR AWHILE
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE SATURATES AND
SUPPORTS A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. FARTHER SOUTH A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY
EVENING. IT IS LIKELY THAT A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WARNING FOR SOME ACCUMULATION OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TYPES.
IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM
3 TO 4 INCHES IN PARTS OF CREEK COUNTY OKLAHOMA TO 10+ INCHES IN
THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. A FEW MODELS SHOW THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH, SO AMOUNTS MAY STILL CHANGE
SOME, BUT WARNING CRITERIA IS LIKELY TO BE MET REGARDLESS IN JUST
ABOUT THE ENTIRE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AREA OF BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW 10 TO 17
BELOW ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
A RAPID WARMUP IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN COMMON FOR THE
CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY, SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS AND WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH ARE FORECAST.
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WINDS WITH THIS
BOUNDARY LOOK TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST, WHILE EASTERLY WINDS
RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 45 21 22 3 / 0 30 100 90
FSM 47 32 34 15 / 0 0 90 100
MLC 48 33 34 10 / 0 10 100 80
BVO 43 16 17 0 / 0 40 100 80
FYV 44 26 27 8 / 0 10 90 100
BYV 43 23 24 6 / 0 10 90 100
MKO 46 30 31 6 / 0 10 100 90
MIO 41 19 20 1 / 0 30 100 100
F10 47 29 30 5 / 0 20 100 90
HHW 48 35 36 17 / 0 0 90 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ054>071.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ049-053-072>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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