493
FXUS64 KTSA 172127
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
327 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (<0.20
INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
QUIET BEFORE THE STORM TODAY AND THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING AT
LEAST, BUT STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING. CURRENT
FORECAST TIMING OF FRONT INTO NORTHEAST OK REMAINS IN THE 02-04Z
TIME FRAME WITH BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO FAR
NORTHWEST AR TO NEAR I-40 IN EASTERN OK BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS UPGLIDE BEGINS TO
INCREASE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY
BY SUNRISE NEARER THE OK/KS BORDER, THOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OCCURS TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE EXISTS AS WELL, AGAIN WITH MOST IMPACTS AFTER
12Z. THE INSET OF WSW WILL BE LEFT AT 12Z. COLD TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO REALLY BE FELT NORTH OF I-44 LATE TONIGHT AS SFC TEMPS DROP IN
TO THE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS APPROACHING ZERO IN A FEW SPOTS BY
MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN EVENT TAKES PLACE TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 412. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY SNOW FROM ABOUT 412
NORTH, A MIX OF TYPES DOWN TO ABOUT I-40, WITH RAIN SOUTH. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW
BY LATE AFTERNOON DOWN TO NEAR I-40 WITH SOME ICING POTENTIAL
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS IN DATA TO EXPAND WINTER WX ADVISORY INTO PUSH
COUNTY WHERE SOME IMPACTFUL ICING AMOUNTS (AROUND 0.10") APPEAR
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SWE RATIOS WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA, ESPECIALLY POINTS FARTHER NORTH.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BE BLOWN BY GUSTY
NORTH WINDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY LIKELY. IN FACT CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MORE OPEN COUNTRY NORTHWEST OF
TULSA AS WIND GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE NEAR
THE EXPECTED ZONE OF STRONGEST FORCING THAT MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE
OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL MARK THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS OF AMOUNTS IN THE 6-12" RANGE, LOCALLY
HEAVIER, GENERALLY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND INTO FAR SW MISSOURI.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THIS ZONE TO SHIFT
BY A COUNTY OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION, THIS EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR ANY SPOT STILL SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE OF VALUES. IN
ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE
ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA, MOST LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF
412. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD END FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING IN NORTHWEST AREAS
AND ELSEWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS -20 LIKELY IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT SUB-ZERO
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVES ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER BY
WED MORNING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MAY AREAS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BOTH WED AND THU MORNING. SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
WARM UP WILL BE SLOWED BY DEEP SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERHEAD. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
PRECIPITATION BECOMES WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 22 27 3 16 / 30 100 80 0
FSM 31 34 16 27 / 0 90 80 0
MLC 32 37 10 23 / 10 90 60 0
BVO 13 19 -1 14 / 50 100 70 0
FYV 25 31 8 21 / 10 90 80 0
BYV 24 26 7 16 / 10 90 90 0
MKO 30 32 7 16 / 10 90 80 0
MIO 19 22 1 11 / 50 100 80 0
F10 29 32 5 16 / 20 90 80 0
HHW 35 37 18 28 / 0 90 50 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ049-053>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR OKZ065-066-070>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ049.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...10
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