975
FXUS64 KTSA 180432
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 944 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (UP
TO 0.20 INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THROUGH MID EVENING, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
WITH THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIRMASS, THE
MOVEMENT HAS BEEN FASTER COMPARED TO ORIGINALLY FORECAST. AS OF
03Z THE FREEZING LINE WAS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FROM OILTON TO
SOUTH TULSA TO GROVE AND NEARING BENTON CO ARKANSAS. BEHIND THE
FREEZING LINE, NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WERE GUSTING 20 TO 30
MPH, CREATING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 20
DEG.
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA
TONIGHT WITH THE FREEZING LINE NEAR INTERSTATE 40 AROUND 12Z TUE.
IN RESPONSE TO THE FASTER MOVEMENT, HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN CLOSER
TO THE NBM10% TO MATCH UP CLOSER TO LATEST TRENDS AND OBS.
ALSO OVERNIGHT, WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
BACK OVER THE CWA FROM THE WEST AND INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE START OF PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA 06Z TO 12Z TUE. PRECIPITATION TYPES
AT THE ONSET ARE FORECAST TO BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT SNOW FOR MUCH
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
KANSAS BORDER. HOWEVER, ALONG AND WEST OF HWY 75 INTO THE TULSA
METRO, ELEVATED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 700-MB
AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW THAT COULD EXTEND
INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE COLUMN REMAINS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SATURATED ALOFT DURING THE MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL HELP TO
TRANSITION TO MAINLY ALL SNOW NORTH OF A BRISTOW TO TAHLEQUAH LINE
MID/LATE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 12Z TUE LOOK TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW AND UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF ICE. THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN FORECAST DURING THE DAY
TUE. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER COLDER AIR.
LASTLY, HAVE EXTENDED THE SPEED OF THE COLD AIR ACROSS SURFACE
TEMPS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. THUS, DROPPING TEMPS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THROUGH THE DAY TUE, AND AS A RESULT ALSO LOWERING WIND CHILL
VALUES. ALSO RE-EVALUATED POPS/WX GRIDS TUES/TUE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT
FOR LATEST TRENDS. OVERALL THERE WAS NOT A BIG CHANGE IN PRECIP
TYPES AND ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THERE WAS AN EXPANSION OF THE
ICE FOOTPRINT OF A TENTH TO NEAR TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA, WITH ALSO MORE OF A MENTION OF SLEET WITHIN THE
WINTRY MIX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
TONIGHTS MID SHIFT WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK THROUGH ALL THIS AND
MAKE ANY UPDATES WITH LATEST DATA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
THE MAIN EVENT TAKES PLACE TUESDAY WITH THE EXPECTATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IMPACTING AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 412. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA, PRIMARILY SNOW FROM ABOUT 412
NORTH, A MIX OF TYPES DOWN TO ABOUT I-40, WITH RAIN SOUTH. COLDER
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH AND MANY AREAS WILL SEE TEMPS
FALLING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PRECIP TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW
BY LATE AFTERNOON DOWN TO NEAR I-40 WITH SOME ICING POTENTIAL
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LATEST TRENDS IN DATA TO EXPAND WINTER WX ADVISORY INTO PUSH
COUNTY WHERE SOME IMPACTFUL ICING AMOUNTS (AROUND 0.10") APPEAR
LIKELY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE SWE RATIOS WELL
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS AREA, ESPECIALLY POINTS FARTHER NORTH.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY SNOW THAT WILL EASILY BE BLOWN BY GUSTY
NORTH WINDS, WITH SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING AND REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY LIKELY. IN FACT CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO BLIZZARD IN
SOME AREAS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE MORE OPEN COUNTRY NORTHWEST OF
TULSA AS WIND GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE NEAR
THE EXPECTED ZONE OF STRONGEST FORCING THAT MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THAT WILL EXTEND TOWARD THE
OZARK PLATEAU. THIS WILL MARK THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WITH A STRONG CONSENSUS OF AMOUNTS IN THE 6-12" RANGE, LOCALLY
HEAVIER, GENERALLY NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AND INTO FAR SW MISSOURI.
KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THIS ZONE TO SHIFT
BY A COUNTY OR TWO IN EITHER DIRECTION, THIS EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR ANY SPOT STILL SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL RANGE OF VALUES. IN
ADDITION, THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REDUCE
ACCUMULATION IN PARTS OF THE AREA, MOST LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF
412. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENING AND
SHOULD END FOR MOST AREAS BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR AND PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY EVENING IN NORTHWEST AREAS
AND ELSEWHERE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN EXTREME
COLD WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH
VALUES AS LOW AS -20 LIKELY IN FAR NORTHERN AREAS, BUT SUB-ZERO
VALUES WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVES ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER BY
WED MORNING. VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH MAY AREAS NEAR OR BELOW ZERO BOTH WED AND THU MORNING. SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WARM BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THE
WARM UP WILL BE SLOWED BY DEEP SNOW PACK IN SOME AREAS, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS NE OK LATER TONIGHT
WITH WORSENING FLIGHT CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NE OK BY SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NE OK WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT NE OK
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NW AR TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL PREVAIL
LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. SNOW ENDS FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT LEVELS
LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 22 22 3 16 / 40 100 80 0
FSM 31 33 16 27 / 10 90 80 0
MLC 32 35 10 23 / 10 90 60 0
BVO 13 16 -1 14 / 60 100 70 0
FYV 25 29 8 21 / 10 90 80 0
BYV 23 25 7 16 / 10 90 90 0
MKO 30 32 7 16 / 20 90 80 0
MIO 17 18 1 11 / 50 100 80 0
F10 29 30 5 16 / 20 90 80 0
HHW 35 37 18 28 / 10 90 50 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
OKZ049-053>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR OKZ065-066-070>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ049.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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