399
FXUS64 KTSA 180928
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
328 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (UP
TO 0.20 INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PROVIDE THE PROVERBIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH NEEDED FOR BIG WINTER
EVENTS HERE. LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING, AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY QUICK
SATURATION ALOFT WHERE TEMPS ARE -10C OR COLDER, INDICATING THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE HERE. IT GETS A LITTLE MUDDIER
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 TO I-40, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. IN
THIS REGION, IT TAKES LONGER TO SATURATE THE COLDER PORTIONS ALOFT
IN THE SOUNDING, WITH A DEEPER LAYER OF WHAT IS MOST LIKELY
SUPERCOOLED WATER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H7 FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST, HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST, YIELDING MORE ICE AND LESS SLEET WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT, THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW A BROADER
ZONE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WEST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING
POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE OUACHITAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COULD SEE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH. COMBINE THAT WITH
THE GUSTIER WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS AS WELL, AND SOME BROKEN LIMBS
AND BRIEF POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH PER HOUR) WILL
ARRIVE BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF
GRADUALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TRAVEL
WILL BECOME DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. MAJOR ROADS MAY CLOSE FOR A TIME,
INCLUDING I-44.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SNOW SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
EVENING, BUT ALSO WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS REGION. THE FASTER
END TO THE PRECIP IN THE MODEL DATA HAS WARRANTED AN ADJUSTMENT TO
THE ENDING TIME OF THE WSW PRODUCTS, TO 09Z FROM 12Z.
AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, BASICALLY WHAT IS LEFT OF A DISPLACED POLAR VORTEX, WILL
BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CONUS THIS WEEK, BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR WE'VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE ARCTIC COLD IS ALREADY MAKING ITS
WAY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH
TIME. AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH,
THIS WILL YIELD VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 20
BELOW MOST AREAS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE
KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. AS A RESULT,
WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW RANGE.
GIVEN THE VERY DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS, AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL, AND WILL
INCLUDE A STEADY WARMING TREND. A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY IS NOT LIKELY TO YIELD MUCH PRECIP NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER, AND HAVE REMOVED ANY WINTER PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WILL FLIP
BACK TO NORMAL, WHILE BROAD RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT, MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND ON INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH ANY LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP SOME.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS NE OK LATER TONIGHT
WITH WORSENING FLIGHT CONDITIONS SPREADING SOUTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD WINTRY MIX WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NE OK BY SUNRISE AND SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. A
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS NE OK WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO IMPACT NE OK
TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY INTO FAR NW AR TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITHIN THE HEAVIEST SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH THE WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL PREVAIL
LONGER BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW. SNOW ENDS FROM WEST
TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING WITH AN IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT LEVELS
LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING ACROSS OK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 23 3 14 -2 / 100 80 0 0
FSM 33 13 24 7 / 90 90 0 0
MLC 35 9 20 5 / 90 70 0 0
BVO 16 0 13 -7 / 100 80 0 0
FYV 28 5 17 -1 / 100 100 0 0
BYV 24 5 16 -3 / 100 100 0 0
MKO 32 7 16 0 / 100 90 0 0
MIO 19 2 13 -8 / 100 90 0 0
F10 29 5 17 1 / 90 80 0 0
HHW 37 16 26 10 / 90 50 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>064-067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-065-066-070>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...07
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