404
FXUS64 KTSA 181621
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (UP
TO 0.20 INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW WITH
NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY TODAY.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
INITIAL AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IS TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
FULLY SATURATED INTO THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE. PRECIPITATION IS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS LARGER SCALE LIFT ARRIVES
FROM THE WEST WITH THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MID LEVEL
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURE INVERSION CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE A WINTRY MIX
WILL DOMINATE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/SLEET/SNOW CONTINUE TO BE SHOWN ON RADAR FROM NEAR I-40
AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION AND DYNAMIC COOLING AFFECTS ACT TO COOL AND MOISTEN A
DEEPER LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. STARTING TO SEE SOME TRANSITION TO
SNOW EVEN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING, THOUGH
RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MELTING LAYER PRESENT AND MIXED
PRECIP WITHIN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ECHOES AS SURFACE TEMPS HOVER
NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
AREA FOR A QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO PREDOMINATELY SNOW WHICH COULD
ADJUST THE FORECAST TOTALS UPWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IF
PRECIP EXPANDS IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS IN
PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP/SNOW
TOTALS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BOWLAN
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE COMBINATION OF A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PROVIDE THE PROVERBIAL ONE-TWO PUNCH NEEDED FOR BIG WINTER
EVENTS HERE. LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING, AND PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TO
THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY QUICK
SATURATION ALOFT WHERE TEMPS ARE -10C OR COLDER, INDICATING THAT
SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE HERE. IT GETS A LITTLE MUDDIER
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 TO I-40, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. IN
THIS REGION, IT TAKES LONGER TO SATURATE THE COLDER PORTIONS ALOFT
IN THE SOUNDING, WITH A DEEPER LAYER OF WHAT IS MOST LIKELY
SUPERCOOLED WATER FROM THE SURFACE UP TO H7 FOR MUCH OF TODAY.
FOR THIS FORECAST, HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE HRRR PRECIP TYPE
FORECAST, YIELDING MORE ICE AND LESS SLEET WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE
BELOW FREEZING. AS A RESULT, THIS FORECAST WILL SHOW A BROADER
ZONE ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WEST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING
POTENTIAL. THE RIDGE TOPS IN THE OUACHITAS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COULD SEE AMOUNTS APPROACHING A QUARTER INCH. COMBINE THAT WITH
THE GUSTIER WINDS ON THE RIDGE TOPS AS WELL, AND SOME BROKEN LIMBS
AND BRIEF POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE HEAVIER SNOW RATES (ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH PER HOUR) WILL
ARRIVE BY MID-MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING, TAPERING OFF
GRADUALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL YIELD NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TRAVEL
WILL BECOME DOWNRIGHT DANGEROUS. MAJOR ROADS MAY CLOSE FOR A TIME,
INCLUDING I-44.
EVENTUALLY THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SNOW SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
EVENING, BUT ALSO WHILE THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. THIS WILL
LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SIGNIFICANTLY IN THIS REGION. THE FASTER
END TO THE PRECIP IN THE MODEL DATA HAS WARRANTED AN ADJUSTMENT TO
THE ENDING TIME OF THE WSW PRODUCTS, TO 09Z FROM 12Z.
AN EAST TO WEST ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA, BASICALLY WHAT IS LEFT OF A DISPLACED POLAR VORTEX, WILL
BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE CONUS THIS WEEK, BRINGING THE COLDEST
AIR WE'VE SEEN THIS WINTER. THE ARCTIC COLD IS ALREADY MAKING ITS
WAY INTO OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH
TIME. AS TEMPS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND COMBINE WITH A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH,
THIS WILL YIELD VERY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 20
BELOW MOST AREAS. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WE
KEEP A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH. AS A RESULT,
WIND CHILLS WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE 5 BELOW TO 20 BELOW RANGE.
GIVEN THE VERY DANGEROUS COLD EXPECTED THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS, AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE MUCH MORE TRANQUIL, AND WILL
INCLUDE A STEADY WARMING TREND. A WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY IS NOT LIKELY TO YIELD MUCH PRECIP NORTH OF
THE RED RIVER, AND HAVE REMOVED ANY WINTER PRECIP MENTION FOR NOW.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE UPPER PATTERN IN THE HIGH LATITUDES WILL FLIP
BACK TO NORMAL, WHILE BROAD RIDGING ENCOMPASSES THE WESTERN
2/3RDS OF THE CONUS. AS A RESULT, MUCH WARMER TEMPS ARE FORECAST
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND ON INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH ANY LINGERING SNOWPACK WILL TEMPER THE WARMUP SOME.
LACY
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO MVFR,
THEN IFR BY LATE MORNING/ AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES ACROSS E OK
& NW AR. WINTRY PRECIPITATION INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THE REGION... PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIP ENDS FROM NW TO SE BY LATE
EVENING/ EARLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS NE OK/ NW AR AND RAIN ACROSS SE OK/ W-CENTRAL AR. WITH
TIME, PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IN NE OK & NW AR, WITH
WINTRY MIX EXPANDING INTO SE OK & W-CENTRAL AR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIP IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW THIS EVENING/
EARLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE OK & W-CENTRAL AR, BEFORE EXITING THE
REGION TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN HEAVIEST SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR SITES. AFTER PRECIP EXITS, MVFR CIGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE CIGS MAY
IMPROVE TO VFR BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...
GUSTING 20-30 KTS... AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO REDUCE VSBYS
ACROSS NE OK & NW AR SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 23 3 14 -2 / 100 80 0 0
FSM 36 13 24 7 / 90 90 0 0
MLC 35 9 20 5 / 90 70 0 0
BVO 16 0 13 -7 / 100 80 0 0
FYV 31 5 17 -1 / 100 100 0 0
BYV 26 5 16 -3 / 100 100 0 0
MKO 32 7 16 0 / 100 90 0 0
MIO 19 2 13 -8 / 100 90 0 0
F10 29 5 17 1 / 90 80 0 0
HHW 37 16 26 10 / 90 50 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>064-
067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-065-
066-070>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page