191
FXUS64 KTSA 182116
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
316 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (UP TO
0.20 INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK, AND
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS HAS TEMPERED SNOWFALL IN AREAS OF NORTHEAST OK WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE AND STRONGER FORCING
WILL HELP FINALLY SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND BRING AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THERE AS WELL. OVERALL
TRENDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM
ABOUT BWO ESE-WARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST THE
FINAL TOTALS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 3-4 INCHES, HOWEVER TRAVEL
WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT IN THOSE AREAS AS A RESULT OF LIGHT ICING
EARLIER. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE, WITH
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST OK SEEING NEAR A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE, WHICH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
POWER INTERRUPTIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO VERY EARLY WED MORNING.
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE AFTER 00Z,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DRY BUT VERY COLD DAY WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE REDUCED,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY. AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BASICALLY ANY
AREA WITH GOOD SNOW PACK DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN NORTHERN AREAS, FOR THE ACTUAL
TEMPS IF NOTHING ELSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARM
UP, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH SNOW COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MAINLY SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NE
OK AND NW AR TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS EXPECTED FOR SE OK AND WC AR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, REDUCING VSBYS TO IFR OR WORSE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST, THOUGH CONTINUED WIND GUSTS WILL
CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 3 16 -3 17 / 80 0 0 0
FSM 14 26 7 28 / 90 0 0 0
MLC 9 22 5 25 / 70 0 0 0
BVO 0 15 -7 16 / 80 0 0 0
FYV 6 20 -3 23 / 100 0 0 0
BYV 5 16 -3 20 / 100 0 0 0
MKO 6 17 0 20 / 90 0 0 0
MIO 2 13 -8 15 / 90 0 0 0
F10 5 17 1 19 / 70 0 0 0
HHW 16 27 10 31 / 40 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>064-
067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-065-
066-070>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR OKZ049-053-072>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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