308
FXUS64 KTSA 182326
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WHERE A HIGH CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW (>4 INCHES)
EXISTS. LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ICE (UP TO
0.20 INCHES) EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
BANDS OF MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OK, AND
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. SOME DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS HAS TEMPERED SNOWFALL IN AREAS OF NORTHEAST OK WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75, BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WAVE AND STRONGER FORCING
WILL HELP FINALLY SATURATE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND BRING AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL THERE AS WELL. OVERALL
TRENDS SUGGEST HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BECOME FOCUSED FROM
ABOUT BWO ESE-WARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE 6-10 INCH RANGE POSSIBLE. TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST THE
FINAL TOTALS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 3-4 INCHES, HOWEVER TRAVEL
WILL REMAIN DIFFICULT IN THOSE AREAS AS A RESULT OF LIGHT ICING
EARLIER. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE, WITH
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS IN SOUTHEAST OK SEEING NEAR A QUARTER
INCH OF ICE, WHICH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
POWER INTERRUPTIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THIS
EVENING INTO VERY EARLY WED MORNING.
ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTH WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. THE
EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE AFTER 00Z,
ALTHOUGH MOST OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR LIKELY REMAIN
ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DRY BUT VERY COLD DAY WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE REDUCED,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY. AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BASICALLY ANY
AREA WITH GOOD SNOW PACK DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN NORTHERN AREAS, FOR THE ACTUAL
TEMPS IF NOTHING ELSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARM
UP, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH SNOW COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS NE OK THROUGH NW AR THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WINTRY MIX REMAINS LIKELY FROM SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL WITH VARYING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE DAY WED WITH MUCH OF THE DAY
MAINTAINING MVFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 3 16 -3 17 / 80 0 0 0
FSM 14 26 7 28 / 90 0 0 0
MLC 9 22 5 25 / 70 0 0 0
BVO 0 15 -7 16 / 80 0 0 0
FYV 6 20 -3 23 / 100 0 0 0
BYV 5 16 -3 20 / 100 0 0 0
MKO 6 17 0 20 / 90 0 0 0
MIO 2 13 -8 15 / 90 0 0 0
F10 5 17 1 19 / 70 0 0 0
HHW 16 27 10 31 / 40 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>064-
067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-065-
066-070>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
072>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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