522
FXUS64 KTSA 190342
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
942 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 942 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
- PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF WEST TO EAST INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES REMAIN INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SOME LIGHT ICE ARE FORECAST.
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINTRY PRECIPITATION
REMAINED COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS
OF MID EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS POINT OF THE EVENING THE
DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WAS SNOW, WHILE A WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL
REMAINED MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE TEMPS WERE STILL
IN THE 20S.
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS AND AN INCREASE IN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER. THIS WAS NOTED BY A BAND OF INCREASING REFLECTIVITY FROM
MCINTOSH/PITTSBURG COUNTIES TO MADISON COUNTY MOVING EASTWARD.
MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST NORTHWEST, THE BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD WAS FROM PAWNEE TO WASHINGTON COUNTIES OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP TAPERING OFF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND EXITING AROUND
08Z, GIVE OR TAKE AN HOUR OR SO WITH THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL TROF
AXIS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO A FEW INCHES IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL REMAINING IN FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL ICE
ACCUMULATION REMAIN AS WELL.
WITH THE BACK EDGE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO BE TRIMMED FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE MAIN PRECIP, SCATTERED
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA.
ALSO TONIGHT, WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
AND BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT,
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER TO THE MID TEENS NEAR
THE RED RIVER ARE FORECAST. WIND CHILL VALUES OF 5 BELOW TO NEAR
20 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, WITH 5 BELOW ZERO
TO 5 ABOVE ZERO FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THUS, THE CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AS IS.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MOVEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. HAVE ALSO
ADDED MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/WIND GRIDS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON
TRACK AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ARCTIC HIGH CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A
DRY BUT VERY COLD DAY WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE REDUCED,
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO MUCH OF THE DAY. AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT THURSDAY MORNING, WITH BASICALLY ANY
AREA WITH GOOD SNOW PACK DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO. COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN NORTHERN AREAS, FOR THE ACTUAL
TEMPS IF NOTHING ELSE.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES FAVORABLE FOR A SUBSTANTIAL WARM
UP, ESPECIALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST AREAS WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE
IT BACK ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THOUGH SNOW COVER WILL HAVE AN IMPACT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
ONGOING WINTER STORM WILL MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS NE OK THROUGH NW AR THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP GRADUALLY
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WINTRY MIX REMAINS LIKELY FROM SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR
BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL WITH VARYING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWS. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN INTO THE DAY WED WITH MUCH OF THE DAY
MAINTAINING MVFR CEILINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 3 16 -3 17 / 80 0 0 0
FSM 14 26 7 28 / 90 0 0 0
MLC 9 22 5 25 / 80 0 0 0
BVO 0 15 -7 16 / 80 0 0 0
FYV 6 20 -3 23 / 100 0 0 0
BYV 5 16 -3 20 / 100 0 0 0
MKO 6 17 0 20 / 90 0 0 0
MIO 2 13 -8 15 / 90 0 0 0
F10 5 17 1 19 / 70 0 0 0
HHW 16 27 10 31 / 60 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>064-
067>069.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053-
065-066-070>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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