255
FXUS64 KTSA 191632
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT FLURRIES ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR TODAY. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW. DID MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE OF FLURRIES WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST
AR THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE SNOW
IS NOT EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR TODAY REMAINS VALID.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE 10S (NORTH)
TO MID 20S (SOUTH). BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS (SUSTAINED AROUND 10-15
MPH, GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH) WILL PRODUCE AVERAGE WIND CHILL VALUES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW 0F NORTH OF I-40 AND BETWEEN 0F AND 10F SOUTH
OF I-40. PLEASE CONTINUE TO TAKE ALL EXTREME COLD PRECAUTIONS
TODAY.
MEJIA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S WINTER STORM, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS
EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AREAWIDE. RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
10S ACROSS THE NORTH AND 20S IN THE SOUTH. WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY, EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST
WITH VALUES LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS NE OK AND
NW AR... AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, THOUGH FAR NE OK/ NW AR COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD.
LIGHT FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF SOME OF THE
LARGER AREA LAKES THIS MORNING. SKY COVER SHOULD TEND TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. PLEASE DRESS APPROPRIATELY IF YOU WILL BE
OUTDOORS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS TODAY AND CONTINUE TO TAKE EXTREME
COLD PRECAUTIONS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS/ BELOW ZERO, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWPACK AND WHERE CLOUDS MANAGE TO CLEAR THE MOST. HIGH TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY... PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER... AND THE EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON THURSDAY FOR ALL ZONES. LOW TEMPS IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT MAY STILL REQUIRE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY, SFC HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY...BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE BY SUNDAY... THEN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO NEXT WEEK. IN
OTHER WORDS... HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S (AND PERHAPS LOWER 70S) ARE
ON THE HORIZON.
THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FAVORS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS E CONUS, GENERALLY PLACING OUR AREA
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, ANY
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW CURRENTLY APPEAR UNLIKELY TO
PRODUCE PRECIP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE HINTS AT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL RETURNING BY MID TO
LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
WE'LL HAVE LARGELY AN MVFR CIG ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A SUBTLE
WAVE IN THE NW FLOW COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, SO HAVE
INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE TEMPO GROUPS OF THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR
SITES. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN MOST PLACES BY THIS EVENING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 14 -2 17 4 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 22 4 28 15 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 19 4 25 11 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 13 -7 16 -2 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 17 -6 22 5 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 16 -5 19 4 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 17 2 22 9 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 12 -7 15 1 / 10 0 0 0
F10 16 1 20 7 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 27 10 33 19 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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