088
FXUS64 KTSA 200247
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
847 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 847 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) IN FAR SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
HAS RESULTED IN FLURRIES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. THIS
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST BY THIS EVENING WITH DECREASING CLOUD
COVER. WITH STRONG 1048MB ARCTIC HIGH REMAINING CENTERED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTH WINDS SHOULD BE PERSISTENT TONIGHT AND
RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS REACHING WARNING CRITERIA FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO RECORD LOWS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. LOWS AT TUL, FSM, FYV WILL BE BROKEN BY SEVERAL DEGREES
WITH THIS EVENT BEING ONE OF THE LATER ONES ON RECORD TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO TEMPS (JUST A DAY OR TWO LATER THAN FEB 2021
COLD SNAP FOR COMPARISON).
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
ANOTHER VERY COLD DAY THURSDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH ENTRENCHED
OVER THE PLAINS. HIGHS MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AND LOWER WIND
SPEEDS WHICH WILL TAKE SOME OF THE EDGE OFF...NONETHELESS ANOTHER
VERY COLD NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RECORDS FOR LOW
MAX TEMPS THURSDAY A SURE BET, AND LOWS FRIDAY CLOSE TO RECORDS AS
WELL. AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WITH WIDESPREAD APPARENT TEMPS IN THE -5 TO 10 DEGREE RANGE.
THE WARMUP BEGINS SATURDAY AS MANY AREAS WARM AT LEAST A LITTLE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON. 12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
STRONGER WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN TX SATURDAY
NIGHT, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP DESPITE
LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. A VERY LOW (10-15%) PROBABILITY DOES
EXIST IN FAR SOUTHEAST OK FOR SOME PRECIP TO FALL AT TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING, BUT ANY ICING WOULD BE OF MINIMAL TO NO IMPACT. ONCE
THAT GETS OUT OF THE WAY, THE BIG WARMUP COMMENCES AND TEMPS WARM
ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 847 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR TAF ELEMENTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL -2 20 4 31 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 6 28 15 37 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 5 25 11 38 / 0 0 0 0
BVO -6 18 -2 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV -4 23 5 36 / 0 0 0 0
BYV -4 19 4 32 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 1 21 9 33 / 0 0 0 0
MIO -8 15 1 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 2 21 7 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 10 31 19 36 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...23
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