302
FXUS64 KTSA 201620
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1020 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1017 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD THROUGH THIS MORNING. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE IN MOST AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING ABOVE
AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (20%) IN FAR SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1017 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
WIND CHILLS REMAIN NEAR WARNING LEVELS IN SOME AREAS THIS
MORNING, BUT PRESENT TRENDS INDICATE THEY SHOULD BE OKAY TO ALLOW
THE WARNING TO EXPIRE AT NOON. IN ANY CASE IT WILL STILL BE
RATHER COLD THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH RECORD
COLD MAX TEMPS LIKELY AT TUL, FYV. FORECAST IS TRENDING WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
RECORD-BREAKING COLD CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN THE UPPER 10S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 30S NEAR THE
RED RIVER. LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN 0 AND 20
BELOW PERSIST THIS MORNING, BUT IMPROVE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
NNE WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST TONIGHT AND WINDS BEGIN TO LOSE
THEIR NORTHERLY COMPONENT. WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND A
MODIFYING AIRMASS, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TONIGHT... BUT STILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW ZERO ALONG THE OK-
KS BORDER AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-40. EVEN WITH WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT TO CALM, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
ZERO FOR PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR. THIS MAY REQUIRE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WITH SOME
COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY REMAINING, WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO TAKE
ONE MORE LOOK BEFORE ISSUING.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST
OF THE AREA, THOUGH LOCATIONS IN FAR NE OK MAY STILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 20S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER,
DESPITE REMAINING WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY
SATURDAY, ALL LOCATIONS WILL RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. THIS WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO STICK AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
LOW CHANCE POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SE OK SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
TX MID LEVEL LOW IS NOW PROJECTED TO CLIP OUR AREA. SFC
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME MAY BE NEAR FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT
ICING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATION/ IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL OR NIL GIVEN MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND LIMITED QPF. SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES ALSO
DEVELOP MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR E OK & NW AR
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 19 6 30 16 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 27 15 36 20 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 24 12 37 19 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 17 0 28 9 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 22 6 35 16 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 19 4 32 14 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 21 8 33 15 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 15 1 29 9 / 0 0 0 0
F10 21 7 34 16 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 31 20 36 21 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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