829
FXUS64 KTSA 210230
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
830 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 830 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING WARMER AND RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGE
LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES (10-20%) IN FAR SOUTHEAST OK LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY
WARMED UP INTO THE TEENS FOR MANY LOCATIONS, MINUS FAR SOUTHEAST
OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED THE
MID-20S. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM UP A DEGREE OR TWO MORE BEFORE
SUNSET. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST, BUT HAVEN’T
BEEN NEARLY AS GUSTY AS PREVIOUS DAYS. NEVERTHELESS, WHAT LITTLE
WINDS THERE ARE HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WINDS ARE FORECAST FURTHER DECREASE INTO THIS EVENING, BECOMING
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TRICKY TO FORECAST TONIGHT. WHAT SNOW PACK/ICE PACK THAT
EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES VERY
CHILLY, BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COLD POTENTIAL. LEANED TOWARD THE
OPERATIONAL NBM SOLUTION, BUT DID LOWER TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR
TWO NEAR THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BORDERS, WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL
ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0F ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER TO NEAR 20F ALONG THE RED RIVER.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST COUNTIES
NORTH OF I-40 DUE TO COLD WIND CHILLS. THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT
9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, DIPPING BETWEEN 0 AND -10F IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 412 ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING (BRIEFLY)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP BACK BELOW FREEZING FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. IN SPITE OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, COLD WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA SOMETIME NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON,
KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE BY
THE TAIL-END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY
BRING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH IT, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BETTER DETAILS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK TO COME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAINTAINED A VERY LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN TX. DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN TRENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SOUTHWARD WITH EACH MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUN. IF THIS CONTINUES, ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IN KEEPING
THE LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NOW, DECIDED TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR
NOW, THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE
LOWERING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR/BELOW FREEZING WHERE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (20%) OF PRECIPITATION OCCURS. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS SHOULD
BE MINIMUM AT MOST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR TAF ELEMENTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 5 31 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 13 37 19 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 12 37 18 49 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 0 29 10 45 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 5 36 16 45 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 4 32 15 42 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 7 32 13 44 / 0 0 0 0
MIO -1 26 10 38 / 0 0 0 0
F10 8 33 16 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 19 37 21 47 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>070.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...23
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