832
FXUS64 KTSA 210932
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
332 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 THROUGH
9 AM THIS MORNING.
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AFTER ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD MORNING, A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
TODAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE WARMING TREND WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY, AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL NEXT
WEEK. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
HOLDING ON TO SNOW COVER AND ITS EFFECTS MUCH TOO LONG, AND THUS
NOT WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ENOUGH. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE
NBM ON TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AS
SUNNY DAYS IN THE COLD SEASON NEARLY ALWAYS WARM ABOVE THE NBM.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES
BY MONDAY, AND WILL REMAIN THERE TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK SLIGHTLY
FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BUT A RETURN TO NEAR 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
APPEARS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 830 PM CST THU FEB 20 2025
VFR TAF ELEMENTS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
VALID PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 30 17 46 28 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 36 19 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 28 13 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 34 15 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 32 16 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 33 18 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 28 13 42 26 / 0 0 0 0
F10 33 18 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 38 23 50 28 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ054>070.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...23
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