430
FXUS64 KTSA 211720
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1022 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
AS OF MID MORNING THE BACKSIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME,
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS
PROVIDING MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR THE
CWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOVEMENT
OF THE SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID
20S ALONG THE KANSAS BORDER TO LOW/MID 30S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WITH
THE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THESE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, THE REST
OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
THE WARMING TREND WILL KICK INTO HIGH GEAR THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY, AND THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL NEXT
WEEK. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
HOLDING ON TO SNOW COVER AND ITS EFFECTS MUCH TOO LONG, AND THUS
NOT WARMING TEMPERATURES QUICKLY ENOUGH. HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE
NBM ON TEMPERATURES JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY OVER THE NEXT WEEK, AS
SUNNY DAYS IN THE COLD SEASON NEARLY ALWAYS WARM ABOVE THE NBM.
MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO AT LEAST 70 DEGREES
BY MONDAY, AND WILL REMAIN THERE TUESDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK SLIGHTLY
FOR A COUPLE DAYS, BUT A RETURN TO NEAR 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES
APPEARS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2025
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4-7KFT WILL SPREAD
OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN COMMON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST TO
SCATTER OUT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT LIGHT/VARIABLE AND
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EXITING THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 28 17 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 36 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 34 19 50 28 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 27 13 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 32 15 45 24 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 30 16 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 32 18 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 27 13 42 25 / 0 0 0 0
F10 33 18 49 27 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 23 50 28 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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