353
FXUS64 KTSA 221724
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
- SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND; ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
- WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
AS OF MID MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAD MOVED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ALLOWING FOR
WEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM YESTERDAY HAD ALSO DEPARTED OFF TO THE EAST
CREATING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
RESPONDED BY WARMING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S, WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 15 DEG ON AVERAGE WARMER THAN 24-HRS AGO.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. LOW TO MID LEVEL
WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY WHICH WILL AID IN
THE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE BACK INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL HELP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE CWA, WITH NEAR 50 DEG OVER THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. WITH THESE TEMPERATURES, A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW MELT IS
EXPECTED TODAY.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, HAVE ADDED MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RATE OF WARMING THIS
MORNING, AND ALSO UPPED WINDS JUST A TICK BASED ON LATEST OBS.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH MOST
PLACES NEARING 60 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND 70 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH ALL
OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL KNOCK A
FEW DEGREES OFF THE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NBM
CAME IN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND RAN WITH THAT FOR
NOW, BUT THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW (10%) CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BETWEEN WEST AND SOUTHERLY
WILL REMAIN COMMON THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH A
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 46 25 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 49 27 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 43 20 59 29 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 43 23 58 31 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 25 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 25 60 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 39 24 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
F10 49 26 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 28 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page