049
FXUS64 KTSA 280159
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
859 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 847 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-44 AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR
ON FRIDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THRU FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK BUT SHOULD
FADE BY THE END OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
OVER SE OK BY EARLY EVENING, BUT CHANCES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY
FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN TX AND ITS
MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IT HAS BEEN, MORE LIKE 60S AND 70S
INSTEAD OF 70S AND 80S.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THRU THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST RESIDES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. A TRANSITION TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT OCCURS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION TO
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO THE GFS, SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE FORMER RATHER THAN THE LATTER. BY LATE SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE
SETS UP OVER WESTERN OK WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KS. THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE EC AND UKMET THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE MORE STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP OFF THE DRYLINE, THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-IMPACT
WEATHER CLEAR EAST INTO NORTHEAST OK SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT EASTERN KS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF FAR
NE OK. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY RUNS OUT OF STEAM TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA, AND BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO FORM, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH NOT QUITE
THE HIGH-IMPACT POTENTIAL OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING, ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.
A COOLER AND QUIET START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, IN THE SPRING THINGS CHANGE FAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHERN TEXAS.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE GREATER POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WILL CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR
KTUL/KRVS. WITHIN THE RAIN SHOWERS, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LIFTING BACK TO LOW END VFR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN SOUTHERLY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH DECREASING SPEEDS TONIGHT AND
INCREASING AGAIN FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 72 61 81 / 0 20 10 10
FSM 59 72 62 83 / 10 60 30 20
MLC 58 69 60 81 / 20 70 20 20
BVO 54 73 57 80 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 55 72 59 81 / 10 40 30 20
BYV 58 72 61 77 / 10 30 30 30
MKO 57 70 60 80 / 0 50 10 10
MIO 58 72 60 79 / 0 10 10 10
F10 57 69 60 80 / 10 40 10 10
HHW 58 65 61 77 / 50 90 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
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