667
FXUS64 KTSA 280527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-44 AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THIS AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR
ON FRIDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO ARRIVE BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THRU FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
SPOTTY HIGH-BASED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK BUT SHOULD
FADE BY THE END OF THE DAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
OVER SE OK BY EARLY EVENING, BUT CHANCES AREN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A MENTION. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY
FROM THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN TX AND ITS
MOISTURE LIFT NORTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WHAT IT HAS BEEN, MORE LIKE 60S AND 70S
INSTEAD OF 70S AND 80S.
LACY
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THRU THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST RESIDES IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. A TRANSITION TOWARD SW FLOW ALOFT OCCURS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW
SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. THE
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER PROGRESSION TO
THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO THE GFS, SO WILL LEAN TOWARD
THE FORMER RATHER THAN THE LATTER. BY LATE SATURDAY, THE DRYLINE
SETS UP OVER WESTERN OK WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
KS. THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY LOOK QUIET, BUT THERE ARE HINTS
IN THE EC AND UKMET THAT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO COULD DEVELOP
OFF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING, WHILE MORE STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IF STORMS DEVELOP OFF THE DRYLINE, THE ENVIRONMENT
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH-IMPACT
WEATHER CLEAR EAST INTO NORTHEAST OK SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. SOME
SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT,
MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT EASTERN KS AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF FAR
NE OK. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY RUNS OUT OF STEAM TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST AND SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA, AND BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DESTABILIZES ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO FORM, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS, THOUGH NOT QUITE
THE HIGH-IMPACT POTENTIAL OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY EVENING, ENDING THE SEVERE THREAT.
A COOLER AND QUIET START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, IN THE SPRING THINGS CHANGE FAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY INTO NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT KMLC AROUND 12Z WITH MVFR CIGS ALSO SPREADING
INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH RAIN EXITING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES BY
EARLY EVENING. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SOME SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTY CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 61 81 59 / 20 10 10 50
FSM 72 62 83 65 / 60 30 20 30
MLC 69 60 81 64 / 70 20 20 30
BVO 73 57 80 52 / 10 10 10 60
FYV 72 59 81 62 / 40 30 20 40
BYV 72 61 77 64 / 30 30 30 40
MKO 70 60 80 62 / 50 10 10 40
MIO 72 60 79 58 / 10 10 10 60
F10 69 60 80 60 / 40 10 10 30
HHW 65 61 77 64 / 90 30 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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