536
FXUS64 KTSA 281720
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1220 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR
TODAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
A TROUGH IS FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER THE AREA ALLOWING FOR DECENT
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. MODEST WARM ADVECTION ALSO CONTINUES
WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE RESULT HAS BEEN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK. THE MAIN SWATH OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE SFC PATTERN EVOLVES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES EAST AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY EVENING. DRYLINE WILL
SHARPEN ACROSS W OK THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A COLD FRONT SLIDES INTO
SW KS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE EVOLVING WARM SECTOR IS SHOWN TO
BE STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, HOWEVER AS TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S AND HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
FROM THE TRIPLE POINT NEAR NORTH CENTRAL OK SOUTHWARD TOWARD A
POTENTIAL DRYLINE BULGE ACROSS N TX. SHOULD THESE STORMS DEVELOP
THEN A TRACK INTO THE UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY SHEARED AIRMASS
WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO E OK BY SATURDAY
EVENING. A MORE PROBABLE ZONE OF STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OK BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. THIS ZONE OF HIGHER STORM
COVERAGE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT A
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHWARD COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN
THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE PREVALENT
CAPPING INVERSION LIKELY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR.
THE COLD FRONT MAKES STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STORMS LIKELY DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SE OK THROUGH NW AR. FRONTAL TIMING WILL BE
KEY TO HOW LONG LIVED ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS ACROSS THE LOCAL
REGION AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD MARK A QUICK END TO THE
POTENTIAL.
COOL AND DRY MONDAY WITH THE SFC PATTERN QUICKLY RESETTING ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY AND
COULD MARK A HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE RISK HOWEVER CURRENT DEWPOINT
FORECASTS DO KEEP HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE PASSES AND USHERS THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FRONT BECOMES IS UNCERTAIN AS TROUGHING
REMAINS ESTABLISHED OVER THE SW CONUS WITH DOWNSTREAM PRESSURE
FALLS LIMITING THE FRONTAL PUSH. THE POTENTIAL FOR A STALLED
FRONTAL ZONE BENEATH SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
UNSETTLED LATE WEEK SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALL NORTHWEST AR
SITES FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
ELSEWHERE, ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE, BUT MOST TERMINALS
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. CEILINGS SHOULD COME UP FOR ALL AREAS, BUT
MAY REMAIN MVFR IN NORTHWEST AR. HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL LOWER
AGAIN TONIGHT TO 1-3 KFT FOR ALL AREAS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT, BUT RETURN AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 81 59 70 / 10 10 50 20
FSM 61 81 65 81 / 50 20 20 40
MLC 60 81 64 78 / 20 10 20 30
BVO 56 82 52 66 / 10 10 60 20
FYV 58 79 62 77 / 40 20 40 50
BYV 60 77 64 77 / 40 20 40 50
MKO 60 81 62 75 / 20 10 30 30
MIO 60 80 58 70 / 20 10 70 40
F10 60 80 60 75 / 20 10 20 20
HHW 60 78 64 80 / 50 20 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page