002
FXUS64 KTSA 282346
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT-SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN COVERAGE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR.
FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL OCCUR, WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
JET PUNCHING INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE BY LATE
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS WITH
A TRIPLE POINT/WEAK FRONTAL LOW SETTING UP OVER NW OK, WITH THE
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER FAR WESTERN OK. WE'RE NOW INTO THE
CAM TIME FRAME, AND THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS
THE HREF SUGGEST THAT WE STAY DRY THRU 00Z WITH DEVELOPMENT FROM
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ON UP THE FRONT INTO KS DURING THE EVENING.
THE 06Z AND 12Z EC ARE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT THIS SOLUTION IS IN THE MINORITY WHEN
COMPARED TO MOST CAMS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. IF THE STORMS ON
THE SOUTHERN END CAN REMAIN MORE CELLULAR, CYCLONICALLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER INTO NE OK (MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE KS BORDER) SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z HRRR SUGGESTED THAT STORMS
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT, SUGGESTING THAT
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN TORNADOES, BUT TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL RUN OUT
OF STEAM TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE EC AND UKMET. BOTH OF THESE MODELS INITIATE STORMS
IN THE SE OK/WEST-CENTRAL AR BORDER VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS,
BUT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT AND SHOW MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND WIND
WOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND QUIET, BUT IN
THE SPRING THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES.
THE 12Z EC KEEPS THE WARM SECTOR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME, BUT OF COURSE THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO FOCUS A HEAVY RAIN AXIS THAT COULD BE NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR
CWA AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEXT WEEKEND, A
BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE THAT WOULD BRING COOLER AND MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN
BECOME BROKEN/OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT WITH THE EXITING
LOW. HOWEVER, THE GREATER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE EAST OF KFSM AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING ADDITIONAL MENTIONS OF PRECIP TONIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE CWA BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO RISE BACK
TO LOW END VFR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CWA LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT BREEZY FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE
KFSM WHERE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 82 58 70 / 0 10 50 20
FSM 61 83 64 81 / 30 10 30 40
MLC 60 82 63 78 / 10 10 20 30
BVO 55 83 51 66 / 0 10 70 20
FYV 58 80 63 77 / 30 20 40 50
BYV 60 78 64 77 / 20 20 30 50
MKO 59 81 61 75 / 10 10 30 30
MIO 59 80 58 70 / 10 10 70 40
F10 59 81 61 75 / 10 10 20 20
HHW 60 78 63 80 / 30 10 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page