984
FXUS64 KTSA 290537
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS
NEEDED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT-SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN COVERAGE HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY
SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR.
FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT WILL OCCUR, WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL
JET PUNCHING INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE BY LATE
SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL BE ADVANCING SOUTHEAST ACROSS KS WITH
A TRIPLE POINT/WEAK FRONTAL LOW SETTING UP OVER NW OK, WITH THE
DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH OVER FAR WESTERN OK. WE'RE NOW INTO THE
CAM TIME FRAME, AND THE 06Z AND 12Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS
THE HREF SUGGEST THAT WE STAY DRY THRU 00Z WITH DEVELOPMENT FROM
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ON UP THE FRONT INTO KS DURING THE EVENING.
THE 06Z AND 12Z EC ARE SHOWING DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT THIS SOLUTION IS IN THE MINORITY WHEN
COMPARED TO MOST CAMS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS. IF THE STORMS ON
THE SOUTHERN END CAN REMAIN MORE CELLULAR, CYCLONICALLY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW LEVELS SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
HIGHER IMPACT SEVERE WEATHER INTO NE OK (MORE LIKELY CLOSER TO
THE KS BORDER) SATURDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z HRRR SUGGESTED THAT STORMS
MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT, SUGGESTING THAT
DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE MORE OF A THREAT THAN TORNADOES, BUT TRENDS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY WILL RUN OUT
OF STEAM TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FASTER WITH THE FRONT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
ESPECIALLY THE EC AND UKMET. BOTH OF THESE MODELS INITIATE STORMS
IN THE SE OK/WEST-CENTRAL AR BORDER VICINITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS,
BUT HODOGRAPHS ARE MORE STRAIGHT AND SHOW MUCH LESS LOW LEVEL
SHEAR COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND WIND
WOULD BE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING.
LACY
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND QUIET, BUT IN
THE SPRING THINGS CHANGE QUICKLY. THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARD MIDWEEK, WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY LINGER IN THE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES.
THE 12Z EC KEEPS THE WARM SECTOR JUST OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THIS
TIME, BUT OF COURSE THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO FOCUS A HEAVY RAIN AXIS THAT COULD BE NEAR OR JUST INTO OUR
CWA AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NEXT WEEKEND, A
BIG PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE THAT WOULD BRING COOLER AND MUCH
QUIETER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR AT LEAST A WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR
TOWARD SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS FAR NE OK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. MOST CHANCES WILL HOLD UNTIL AFTER 6Z SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR KBVO WHERE PROB30'S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 58 70 40 / 10 50 20 0
FSM 83 64 81 45 / 10 30 40 20
MLC 82 63 78 44 / 10 20 30 10
BVO 83 51 66 36 / 10 70 20 0
FYV 80 63 77 38 / 20 40 50 10
BYV 78 64 77 40 / 20 30 50 10
MKO 81 61 75 41 / 10 30 30 10
MIO 80 58 70 39 / 10 70 40 0
F10 81 61 75 41 / 10 20 20 0
HHW 78 63 80 47 / 10 20 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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