319
FXUS64 KTSA 290838
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
338 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS
ON A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING
THROUGH WESTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE DRYLINE / COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK AND SPREAD ENE ACROSS MUCH OF
NE OK FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
AND EXPECTATIONS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL INHIBITION. FURTHER SOUTH THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS FORCING
WILL REMAIN LESS. GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON THE OVERALL
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. COLD FRONT MOVES
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY EXTENDS FROM FAR NW AR INTO SE
OK AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL STORMS MAY NOT
BEGIN TO PEAK UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
BE UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY LATE MORNING SO ANY INITIAL
STORMS WILL POSE SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER.
SFC LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER SW CO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND A
RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS QUICKLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AND
INTO NE OK BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARD A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
THE FRONT STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND REGAINS
A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. A WINDOW FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SCENARIO ACROSS SE OK INTO WESTERN AR. THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MULTIPLE SUBTLE WAVES PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
MVFR CIGS ARE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME IFR CIGS COULD OCCUR
TOWARD SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK SITES. CEILINGS SHOULD
SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND SCATTER OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ACROSS FAR NE OK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE REGION. MOST CHANCES WILL HOLD UNTIL AFTER 6Z SUNDAY
EXCEPT FOR KBVO WHERE PROB30'S HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 83 59 70 40 / 0 70 10 0
FSM 82 65 83 45 / 0 30 40 20
MLC 82 64 79 44 / 0 30 20 10
BVO 84 50 66 36 / 0 80 10 0
FYV 80 62 79 38 / 0 50 50 10
BYV 79 63 79 40 / 10 40 50 20
MKO 82 61 76 41 / 0 50 30 10
MIO 81 57 69 39 / 0 80 30 0
F10 82 59 76 41 / 0 40 10 0
HHW 79 64 79 47 / 0 30 30 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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