014
FXUS64 KTSA 291734
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IN
ONGOING. AN INITIAL LEAD WAVE IS LIFTING NNE OVER KS/NE THIS
MORNING, WITH A TRAILING WAVE CURRENTLY OVER AZ EXPECTED TO HELP
PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KS WAS MOVING EAST. A DRYLINE EXTENDED
SOUTH OF THE LOW DOWN ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK INTO WESTERN NORTH TX.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST IN OUR DIRECTION LATER AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD NW MO. MID LEVEL
TEMPS WERE WARM ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING /700MB ~10C/ INDICATING
THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY STOUT CAPPING OF THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND UPPER FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPINGES ON THE
REGION WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE WEST, STORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO FIRE THIS EVENING.
STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT WINDS/GUSTS HIGHER THAN
THE MODEL BLEND FOR TODAY, AND ALSO KEPT THE DRY FORECAST THRU
00Z.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WARM, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH FOCUS
ON A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND A DRYLINE EXTENDING
THROUGH WESTERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOTABLE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES
BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. EXPECTATION IS THAT STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR THE DRYLINE / COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OK AND SPREAD ENE ACROSS MUCH OF
NE OK FROM MID EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
AND EXPECTATIONS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORMS DESPITE RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL INHIBITION. FURTHER SOUTH THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS FORCING
WILL REMAIN LESS. GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY ON THE OVERALL
COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. COLD FRONT MOVES
STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD AND LIKELY EXTENDS FROM FAR NW AR INTO SE
OK AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS ON SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND COVERAGE OF EVENTUAL STORMS MAY NOT
BEGIN TO PEAK UNTIL IT REACHES THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND POINTS EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS ALONG THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO
BE UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BY LATE MORNING SO ANY INITIAL
STORMS WILL POSE SOME RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NW WINDS.
SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER.
SFC LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS OVER SW CO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND A
RAPID AIRMASS MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR WIND ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS QUICKLY
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THE NEXT COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD AND
INTO NE OK BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARD A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND SPREADING
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
THE FRONT STALLS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND REGAINS
A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON
THURSDAY. A WINDOW FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SCENARIO ACROSS SE OK INTO WESTERN AR. THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED FRIDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS TROUGHING
REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND MULTIPLE SUBTLE WAVES PASS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TAF SITES WILL TREND TOWARD VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE E OK SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, AND THE W AR SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO CONVEY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
THE NE OK SITES, AND PROB30 GROUPS ELSEWHERE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO WNW OR NW AND MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 70 40 63 / 70 10 0 0
FSM 65 83 45 69 / 30 40 20 0
MLC 64 79 44 66 / 30 20 10 0
BVO 50 66 36 61 / 80 10 0 0
FYV 62 79 38 63 / 50 50 10 0
BYV 63 79 40 60 / 40 50 20 0
MKO 61 76 41 63 / 50 30 10 0
MIO 57 69 39 59 / 80 30 0 0
F10 59 76 41 63 / 40 10 0 0
HHW 64 79 47 67 / 30 30 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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