849
FXUS64 KTSA 291940
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
240 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT NAVIGATES OVER THE S PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NAVIGATES NEWRD THROUGH THE C PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH DELIVERS A SW-NE ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO S
KS AND N OK. A DRYLINE ALSO EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH OK AND INTO N TX
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS MOVE
INTO THE AREA BY LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
TONIGHT'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND, PERHAPS TO A LESSER EXTENT, THE DRYLINE. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NOTABLE INHIBITION IN THE WARM SECTOR PRECEDING
THIS ACTIVITY, LIKELY LIMITING ANY DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE BETTER
FORCING MECHANISMS ARRIVE.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS HIGHEST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO KS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOUTH
WITH COLD FRONT PLACEMENT INTO OK, WHICH IN TURN HAS SHIFTED THE
TRIPLE POINT SOUTHWARD... SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL TO N-
CENTRAL OK. UNCERTAINTY STILL LINGERS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE GIVEN STRONGER CAPPING... BUT LATEST CAMS HAVE COME AROUND
TO THE IDEA OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
S-CENTRAL OK.
THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS E OK WILL BY CHARACTERIZED BY 60F+ DEW
POINTS, STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SRH. AS A RESULT, STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS
AIRMASS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP ORGANIZED, ROTATING UPDRAFTS,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, AT LEAST INITIALLY. THERE
REMAINS A LOW PROBABILITY OF HIGHER-END IMPACTS WITH A STORM OR TWO
TODAY. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE CONDITIONAL WITH
TIME, DEPENDENT ON DEVELOPMENT/ MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION.
THIS MAY REQUIRE MODIFICATION IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
MOST LIKELY WITH STORMS THAT ORIGINATE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT.
CONVECTION ACROSS N-CENTRAL OK WILL TEND TO CONGEAL INTO CLUSTERS OR
A MORE LINEAR MODE AS IT MOVES EAST, AND THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGHER DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS AND A LESSENING OF OTHER SEVERE
HAZARDS IN TIME. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
NE OK AND FAR NW AR TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING INTO SW MO.
FURTHER SOUTH, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES WITH TIME AND
EASTWARD EXTENT, AND BETTER FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT, ANY ONGOING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING THEIR
STRENGTH.
STORM INITIATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOMETIME LATE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY BETWEEN 7 TO 10 PM, IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
THESE STORMS MOVE EAST, BRINGING THE HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(AND SEVERE POTENTIAL) TO E OK/ FAR NW AR BETWEEN 11 PM AND 5 AM
TONIGHT. ISOLATED, ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT/ EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT
OVERALL, A LULL IN STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SE
OK AND W-CENTRAL AR. THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE, WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/ SRH
OVER OUR AREA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TONIGHT. STORMS MOVE EAST OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET ON MONDAY (ALBEIT MUCH
COOLER) BEFORE BROAD W CONUS TROUGHING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT,
ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN WILL HAVE OCCURRED AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE S PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND ALL HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ADVERTISED TO HANG AROUND THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ARE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR. GIVEN
REPEATED STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS, HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE... IN THE 60S AND 70S... BUT WITH A COOLER DAY ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
TAF SITES WILL TREND TOWARD VFR THRU THE AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE E OK SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, AND THE W AR SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SUNDAY. USED TEMPO GROUPS TO CONVEY HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
THE NE OK SITES, AND PROB30 GROUPS ELSEWHERE WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
LESS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS IS
POSSIBLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL SWITCH WINDS AROUND TO WNW OR NW AND MVFR CIGS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 64 41 63 / 80 20 0 0
FSM 64 79 47 69 / 50 40 10 0
MLC 64 74 45 66 / 50 20 10 0
BVO 49 63 37 61 / 90 20 0 0
FYV 61 74 39 63 / 50 40 10 0
BYV 63 75 40 60 / 40 50 10 0
MKO 59 71 42 63 / 70 20 0 0
MIO 55 64 38 59 / 90 30 0 0
F10 58 69 42 63 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 66 81 49 67 / 40 40 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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