807
FXUS64 KTSA 300304
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1004 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES THIS EVENING,
BUT STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THUS FAR HAS REMAINED
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH HAS
LIMITED STORM INTENSITY.
SURFACE BASED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ARE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, AND
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AS
WELL. WITH TIME, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO TAKE ON A MORE LINEAR MODE,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER
TONIGHT.
FARTHER SOUTH, STORM COVERAGE REMAINS MORE IN QUESTION, AND THUS
POPS WILL BE LOWER IN THIS AREA AS ADVERTISED BY THE GOING
FORECAST.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME IS SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING,
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN SE
OK AND W-CENTRAL AR. THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN HAVE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME SEVERE, WITH PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EVOLVE, BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR/ SRH
OVER OUR AREA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TONIGHT. STORMS MOVE EAST OF
THE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER QUIET ON MONDAY (ALBEIT MUCH
COOLER) BEFORE BROAD W CONUS TROUGHING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE
REGION TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT,
ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN WILL HAVE OCCURRED AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE S PLAINS. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND ALL HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS ADVERTISED TO HANG AROUND THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, NEARLY
DAILY CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AND AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
ARE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR. GIVEN
REPEATED STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS, HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS MAY
EVENTUALLY BECOME A CONCERN NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE... IN THE 60S AND 70S... BUT WITH A COOLER DAY ON MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES, POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAINFALL
SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT LIMITED FOR THE MOST PART.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA SITES
AND TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS AT THE ARKANSAS SITES. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
IN ARKANSAS IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 64 41 63 / 80 20 0 0
FSM 64 79 47 69 / 50 40 10 0
MLC 64 74 45 66 / 50 20 10 0
BVO 49 63 37 61 / 90 20 0 0
FYV 61 74 39 63 / 50 40 10 0
BYV 63 75 40 60 / 40 50 10 0
MKO 59 71 42 63 / 70 20 0 0
MIO 55 64 38 59 / 90 30 0 0
F10 58 69 42 63 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 66 81 49 67 / 40 40 30 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...10
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