341
FXUS64 KTSA 301729
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REDEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT TODAY W/ MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH A
PRETTY CLEAR INDICATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE BETWEEN FAYETTEVILLE
AND ROGERS/BENTONVILLE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO JUST SOUTH OF
MCALESTER. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS ALREADY PRETTY
UNSTABLE, WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS COMMON. WITH SOME DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT CELLS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE DISCRETE TODAY
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS STRONG, BUT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS LACKING. IT WILL TAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN BY A
SUPERCELL /FARTHER OFF THE HODOGRAPH/ TO REALIZE TORNADO
POTENTIAL. THE LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP STORMS NEAR THE FRONT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SE OK UP INTO NW AR WITH STORMS
STRENGTHENING/MATURING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS AND MATURES INTO A SUPERCELL WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL /2 INCHES IN DIAMETER OR LARGER/ AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, TORNADO POTENTIAL IS
MORE CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON STORM MOTION. THE SEVERE THREAT
ENDS BY THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AS INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL WAVE
PASSES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. EXPECTATIONS IS STORM COVERAGE LESSENS LATER TONIGHT
WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE REMAINING BY SUNSET. COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND LIKELY EXTENDS FROM FAR
NW AR INTO FAR SE OK BY MID AFTERNOON. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT BUT MORE SO FURTHER EAST AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS VEER AND LIMIT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE. ANY STORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SEASONABLY COLD TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN AREAS FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. COLDER TEMPS
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE OCCURS ON TUESDAY AS SFC LOW QUICKLY DEEPENS
OVER SE CO BY SUNRISE TUESDAY AND TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT AND STORMS PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL ADVANCE WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACCUMULATING BY THURSDAY. A SIMILAR SCENARIO UNFOLDS ON
FRIDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
PERSISTENT ZONE OF SYNOPTIC LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE EXACT FRONTAL PLACEMENT DETAILS ARE MORE UNCERTAIN BUT
EXPECT AN UNSETTLED LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND PATTERN WITH DAILY
PRECIP CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT BY EVENING. STORM CHANCES GREATEST AT KFSM WHICH IS
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR TSRA POTENTIAL. WINDS SWITCH TO N TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABV 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOW
CLOUD POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OK. INSERTED A SCT LOW
CLOUD MENTION TO GIVE HEADS UP.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 41 61 45 76 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 47 68 46 79 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 45 65 47 78 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 37 60 39 75 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 39 62 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 40 60 42 72 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 42 62 44 77 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 39 59 41 73 / 0 0 0 10
F10 43 62 44 77 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 48 67 48 79 / 10 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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