722
FXUS64 KTSA 301950
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
250 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REDEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT TODAY W/ MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST STORMS
LIKELY TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
A COLD FRONT WAS ORIENTED FROM SE OK TO NW AR, HELPING TO SPAWN
ISOLATED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE, CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS,
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN
CONDITIONAL AND DEPENDENT ON STORM MOTION, OWING TO MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS OUR FA. ANY CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST OF THE CWA BY 5-6 PM THIS EVENING.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED STORMS
THIS EVENING, QUIET CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER COLD TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE LOWS IN THE
30S ARE FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...
BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR N OK AND NW AR WHERE
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO SCRAPE N OK COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LOW TRACKS ENE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, DRAGGING A DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT INTO W OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS, BUT EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY OR
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.
THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF SE OK/ W-CENTRAL
AR THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT, PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND SEVERE POTENTIAL) CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE... BUT SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME APPEAR
PROBABLE AND HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SPATIAL DETAILS WILL COME
INTO FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... IN THE
70S OR LOWER 80S... BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL,
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S OR LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WINDS, BUT OVERALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO LAST NIGHT'S
RAINS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS BEHIND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
SCATTER OUT BY EVENING. STORM CHANCES GREATEST AT KFSM WHICH IS
STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS FOR TSRA POTENTIAL. WINDS SWITCH TO N TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABV 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF LOW
CLOUD POTENTIAL MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NE OK. INSERTED A SCT LOW
CLOUD MENTION TO GIVE HEADS UP.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 42 63 45 76 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 46 71 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 67 47 78 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 40 62 40 75 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 40 65 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 38 61 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 42 64 45 77 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 39 60 42 73 / 0 10 0 10
F10 42 64 44 77 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 48 69 49 79 / 10 10 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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