091
FXUS64 KTSA 310529
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1226 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY REDEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT TODAY W/ MUCH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST STORMS
LIKELY TO MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 6 PM.
- UNSETTLED MID / LATE WEEK WITH SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FORECAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, BUT ALL PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED WELL OFF TO THE EAST.
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS, WITH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKING GOOD AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE QUIETEST DAY OF THE WEEK WEATHER-WISE...
BUT IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR FAR N OK AND NW AR WHERE
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S. WE MAY SEE A SPRINKLE OR
TWO SCRAPE N OK COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON AS A SUBTLE
MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE, SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY TUESDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES IN RESPONSE TO
INTENSIFYING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS LOW TRACKS ENE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, DRAGGING A DRYLINE/ COLD FRONT INTO W OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS FORECAST TO APPROACH OR EXCEED
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING
DISCREPANCIES EXIST BETWEEN MODELS, BUT EVENTUALLY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE TUESDAY OR
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE
TUESDAY AND ON WEDNESDAY. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.
THIS FRONT WILL TEND TO LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF SE OK/ W-CENTRAL
AR THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE BEING SHUNTED SOUTHWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MULTIPLE IMPULSES INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS A
RESULT, PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND SEVERE POTENTIAL) CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AREAWIDE... BUT SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME APPEAR
PROBABLE AND HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS WILL LIKELY INCREASE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND SPATIAL DETAILS WILL COME
INTO FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... IN THE
70S OR LOWER 80S... BUT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL,
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S OR LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WINDS, BUT OVERALL, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO LAST NIGHT'S
RAINS AND INCREASING MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A DECK OF STRATUS WILL TRY TO
FILTER INTO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME FOR NE OK AND
NW AR SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND GO CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 45 76 63 / 0 0 10 80
FSM 71 47 79 66 / 0 0 0 60
MLC 67 47 78 65 / 0 0 10 70
BVO 62 40 75 58 / 10 0 10 80
FYV 65 43 74 62 / 0 0 0 70
BYV 61 42 72 63 / 0 0 0 60
MKO 64 45 77 63 / 0 0 10 70
MIO 60 42 73 62 / 10 0 10 80
F10 64 44 77 63 / 0 0 10 70
HHW 69 49 79 65 / 10 0 10 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04
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