205
FXUS64 KTSA 310845
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
345 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK AIRMASS CHANGE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWARD AND A DRYLINE SHARPENING ACROSS
WESTERN OK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR LATE IN THE DAY AND A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO E OK. THE MORE LIKELY WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
AND MOVES INTO E OK BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD AN UNSTABLE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WHILE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AS AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY
REMAIN PRESENT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND STORM
EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THE BACKGROUND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT TIMING REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
BOUNDARY CLEARING NW AR AND SE OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOCUSING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
SLOWING OF THIS TIMING WOULD BE IMPACTFUL AS THE SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE VOLATILE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WED. NIGHT WITHIN THE
STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE REGIME SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN FORECAST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROFILES.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
VICINITY AND BE A FOCUS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM SE OK INTO WESTERN
AR. A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME AND
REMAIN A SOURCE REGION AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS PASSES ON
SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR
AND POINTS EASTWARD ARE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD
CONCERNS BY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A DECK OF STRATUS WILL TRY TO
FILTER INTO FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND COULD LEAD TO SOME MVFR CIGS FOR A TIME FOR NE OK AND
NW AR SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND GO CALM TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 46 75 63 / 0 0 10 80
FSM 69 46 79 66 / 0 0 0 60
MLC 66 47 79 65 / 0 0 10 70
BVO 60 40 75 58 / 0 0 10 80
FYV 63 43 75 62 / 0 0 0 70
BYV 61 43 72 63 / 0 0 0 60
MKO 63 44 76 63 / 0 0 10 80
MIO 59 41 72 62 / 0 0 10 80
F10 63 44 76 63 / 0 0 10 80
HHW 69 48 77 65 / 0 0 10 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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