627
FXUS64 KTSA 311716
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1104 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MUCH COOLER TODAY BEHIND YESTERDAY'S FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING
IS BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NE OK AND NW
AR ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) WAS ON THE HIGH END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND INSTEAD USED CONSMOS AND NBM 25TH %ILE FOR
HIGHS TODAY.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY
WITH STRONG GUSTS DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RESULT WILL BE A QUICK AIRMASS CHANGE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY RETURNING NORTHWARD AND A DRYLINE SHARPENING ACROSS
WESTERN OK BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS THE DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR LATE IN THE DAY AND A LOW CHANCE
OF ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND TRACKING
EASTWARD INTO E OK. THE MORE LIKELY WINDOW FOR STORMS WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
AND MOVES INTO E OK BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL YIELD AN UNSTABLE
PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WHILE WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE LOWEST LEVELS AS AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
REGION. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION MAY
REMAIN PRESENT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND STORM
EVOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER THE BACKGROUND SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT TIMING REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
BOUNDARY CLEARING NW AR AND SE OK BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOCUSING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
SLOWING OF THIS TIMING WOULD BE IMPACTFUL AS THE SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE VOLATILE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE RED RIVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING WED. NIGHT WITHIN THE
STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE REGIME SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO
WESTERN AR. SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING
THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN FORECAST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY PROFILES.
A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN
VICINITY AND BE A FOCUS AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM SE OK INTO WESTERN
AR. A FETCH OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS TIME AND
REMAIN A SOURCE REGION AS THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS PASSES ON
SATURDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SE OK THROUGH WESTERN AR
AND POINTS EASTWARD ARE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
POTENTIAL. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN BOTH FLASH FLOOD AND RIVER FLOOD
CONCERNS BY LATE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
COOLER AND DRIER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR SHOULD SCATTER OUT SHORTLY, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EVERYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE E OK SITES AND A MENTION WAS ADDED THERE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO
25 KTS EXPECTED.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 62 46 75 63 / 0 0 10 80
FSM 68 46 79 66 / 0 0 0 60
MLC 65 47 79 65 / 0 0 10 70
BVO 60 40 75 58 / 10 0 10 80
FYV 61 43 75 62 / 0 0 0 70
BYV 59 43 72 63 / 0 0 0 60
MKO 62 44 76 63 / 0 0 10 80
MIO 58 41 72 62 / 0 0 10 80
F10 62 44 76 63 / 0 0 10 80
HHW 68 48 77 65 / 0 0 10 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30
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