877
FXUS64 KTSA 311954
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
254 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 254 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY, PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS SHIFTING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.
OVERALL, A LOW IMPACT PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, FEATURING MULTIPLE WEATHER IMPACT TYPES
AND PERIODS, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS, SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL NOTICEABLY INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE IN THE 80 TO 100
PERCENT RANGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR
THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 69 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH AN
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF SUCH INTO MUCH OF THE REST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS TUESDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTS MAY REACH THE 45 TO 50 MPH RANGE AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN AN EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
JET IS FULLY OVERHEAD. AN INITIAL WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 69 AREA, WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT IT WILL BE EXPANDED EASTWARD, FEATURING A LATER
START TIME THAN 15Z TUESDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF
SOME TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION.
THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL ALSO INCREASE
LATE TUESDAY, THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY
PORTION OF WEDNESDAY. THE INITIAL CONCERN IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE DATA SHOW A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS
OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER, NEARER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG CAP
REMAINS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA,
ALTHOUGH IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS
SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 21Z
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THIS POTENTIAL INITIATION POINT. INTO LATE
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR SOUTH MARKEDLY INCREASES WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FRONT AND WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET.
THESE WOULD ALSO POSE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WITH ELEVATED
STORMS MORE LIKELY LEADING TO A LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY, DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL STORM POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY ON THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION,
LIKELY INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE GETTING A NORTHWARD
KICK IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AIDED BY
A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET AND INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ROUND OF HEAVIER
RAINS MARKS THE FIRST OF A FEW ROUNDS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SIMILARLY
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES REMAIN FOCUSED INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS, WITH PERSISTENT MOISTURE UPLIFT
FOCUSED INTO THIS SAME AREA. EXPECT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SUCH
TO WIGGLE WITH TIME, HOWEVER, WITH SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS LOOKING TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE SAME AREA WILL LEAD TO WORSENING
FLOOD CONDITIONS, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.
THE TROUGH WILL CLEAR THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BRINGING
DECREASED POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND MUCH COLDER
WEATHER. BY THE TIME WE GET TO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR SHOULD SCATTER OUT SHORTLY, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING EVERYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. LLWS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK AT THE E OK SITES AND A MENTION WAS ADDED THERE.
NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY AND GUSTY BY MID MORNING TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS 20 TO
25 KTS EXPECTED.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 45 75 63 78 / 0 10 80 30
FSM 47 79 66 81 / 0 0 50 80
MLC 47 75 65 81 / 0 10 70 60
BVO 40 73 58 77 / 0 10 90 20
FYV 42 73 62 78 / 0 0 60 80
BYV 43 71 63 76 / 0 0 50 80
MKO 44 75 63 79 / 0 10 70 50
MIO 42 72 62 76 / 0 10 80 50
F10 45 75 63 78 / 0 10 80 40
HHW 48 77 65 77 / 0 10 60 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070-071-073.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...30
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