398
FXUS64 KTSA 011542
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1042 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND W/
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST OBS/ SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF E OK.
CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS (ORIGINATING OFF THE DRYLINE) MOVING INTO NE OK THIS
EVENING. NOTABLE INHIBITION WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND
QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN REGARDING QUALITY OF MOISTURE AND FORCING
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING. FOR THIS REASON, THE SEVERE THREAT
THIS EVENING REMAINS CONDITIONAL WITH OVERALL LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE. WITH THAT SAID, VERTICAL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND IF ANY STORM DEVELOPS AND CAN
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THEM, IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ON SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS QUICKLY. HIGHER-END SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING VERY
LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, POTENTIALLY STRONG
TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44
ARE MOST AT RISK FOR ANY EVENING STORMS AND MOST LIKELY TIMING IS
BETWEEN 6-10 PM. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AND
PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT EXPLANATION OF TODAY/ TONIGHT'S SEVERE
WEATHER RISK. PLEASE SEE IT BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
BEGINS TODAY AS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST AND WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING STALLED AS
A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BLOCKS ITS
PROGRESSION OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE FIRST CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAS COMMENCED
THIS MORNING CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO COME BACK AROUND OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OUT OF TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. AN INTENSE 50 KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RAPID INCREASE IN
WINDS AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL MIXING COMMENCES. WIND GUSTS OF
40-45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATER
THIS MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THUS A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS IS, AS THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF THE STRONGER WINDS THIS MORNING IS STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED
FURTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY FOR TONIGHT AS AN EVEN STRONGER JET SETS
UP OVER THE REGION.
THE MAIN PLAYER FOR TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD, A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE MID LEVEL CAPPING WILL BE STRONG THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SHARPENING DRYLINE UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES AS A
LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ALONG WITH
THE TIMING OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. IF BOTH CONDITIONS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY MET, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH
ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
A MORE LIKELY SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO UNFOLD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST BY THIS
POINT AND WITH STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A LINE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND STRONG
WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAZARDS THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL OF POTENTIAL
SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS A STRONG LO LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL ALSO POSE A ALL HAZARDS SEVERE RISK, THOUGH A
NOCTURNAL CAPPING INVERSION COULD KEEP THESE CELLS FROM BECOMING
ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STAYING MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE
WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL STILL BEAR
WATCHING AS TRENDS ARE UPDATED IN LATER SHIFTS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS, THOUGH MOST LIKELY IN A WEAKENING STATE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS, SETTING THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AS CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION TAKE SHAPE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE SEVERE
THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, BRINGING A LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ATOP THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL
STILL EXIST WITH THESE STORMS AS STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WOULD
SUPPORT HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL REGION. SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THOUGH A LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, THIS
WILL TURN TO MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERN BY LATE
WEEK AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIP OVER THE SAME AREA COULD PUSH 5
DAY RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4-6 INCHES IN SPOTS BY SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SLATED TO FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH NOTABLY COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWING THE FINAL
COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SHOWERS, POSSIBLE MIXED WITH
SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP NEAR FREEZING AND
FREEZE/FROST HEADLINES COULD BE NEEDED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY TODAY. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW
CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY HOWEVER EXPECTATION IS CEILINGS PRIMARILY
REMAIN IN THE LOW VFR RANGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP ACROSS IN VICINITY OF E OK BY EARLY EVENING AND TRACK
ENE. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A LOW MENTION OF EARLY
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR OK TERMINALS. CEILINGS LOWER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS W/ WINDS INCREASING AND STRONG LLWS OVERHEAD.
STORMS INCREASE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG / AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS NE
OK BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 64 78 52 / 10 80 30 40
FSM 78 66 81 60 / 0 50 90 70
MLC 78 65 81 57 / 10 70 60 80
BVO 74 59 77 46 / 10 90 20 20
FYV 74 62 78 52 / 0 50 90 50
BYV 71 63 76 52 / 0 30 90 40
MKO 75 63 79 53 / 10 70 60 60
MIO 71 62 76 50 / 10 80 50 30
F10 76 63 79 52 / 10 80 40 60
HHW 76 64 77 62 / 10 60 90 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064>067-070-071-073.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07
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