076
FXUS64 KTSA 012334
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- LOW PROBABILITY OF ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-44. HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON )
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
A DEEP SURFACE LOW (~985 HPA AND NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MINIMUM FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL TRACK THROUGH WESTERN OK AND KS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS BEING DRIVEN BY A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL STICK
AROUND FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN RESPONSE TO THE RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS
SURFACE LOW, ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. STRONG GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR GUSTS TO 45
MPH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF EASTERN OK.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY LACKING, INTEGRATED VAPOR
TRANSPORT WILL EXCEED THE 99TH PERCENTILE RELATIVE TO CLIMATOLOGY
LATER TODAY. IN OTHER WORDS, MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RACE BACK INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH DEW POINTS
INTO THE MID 60S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE, EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE
AREA AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JET SETS UP TO THE WEST.
THIS WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO 7.5-8 C/KM.
MEANWHILE, A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING WITH 850 HPA
SPEEDS EXCEEDING 70 KTS. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING MOISTURE, THIS
STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE (WARM ADVECTION) WILL RESULT IN ROBUST LOW
LEVEL HELICITY. ANY STORM THAT DOES FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF A
TORNADO, PERHAPS STRONG. ALL THESE FACTORS WE'VE MENTIONED WILL ALSO
PROMOTE EXCELLENT INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY 2000-3500
J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE.
THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORMS WILL BE A DRY LINE WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. ANY STORMS THAT CAN FORM AND PERSIST SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY TRACK INTO THE MOIST, UNSTABLE, AND
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST. CAM GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY
INDICATED ISOLATED AND DISCRETE STORMS FORMING, WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN THE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FLOW, WITH 1-3 SUPERCELLS TRACKING
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL POTENTIALLY BE
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AS WAS MENTIONED, BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.
BUT IT MUST BE STRESSED THAT IT IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT, IF STORMS
FAIL TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE SEVERE
WEATHER.
WITH THAT SAID, THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL, WITH SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED ODDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS MAKES CONCEPTUAL SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN, WITH THE SPC SHOWING
AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST OK, AND
LOWER RISK TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY THE
VERY LATE EVENING OR THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT ANY BREAK WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, OR PERHAPS MORE OF A DRY LINE, WILL APPROACH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS LINE. GIVEN THIS, WITH THE VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE IN PLACE, WIND AND QLCS TORNADOES
ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. IF ANY SEMI DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ABLE TO FORM, LARGE HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT A BROADER AREA THAN WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS EVENING AND WILL
STILL BE TRANSVERSING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ENDS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE LINE OF STORMS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST, MAINLY
FOR WIND AND AND QLCS TORNADOES. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS
WILL DROP AND THE RAIN DIMINISH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
IT STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY, BUT
THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FORECAST PROBLEM. REGARDLESS, RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK, THEN SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE
EPS EFI IS REALLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHEAST OK THURSDAY, WITH A CAPE-
SHEAR EFI VALUE OF 1 AND A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 2. THIS IMPLIES
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH IT MAY OR MAY NOT
BE FULLY REALIZED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL IN THE WARM SECTOR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40. DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, SOME FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST OK BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY REIGNITES AGAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-44 CORRIDOR. WITH A WELL POSITIONED JET STREAK,
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND SOLID LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, THE STAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN WILL
BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA RIVERS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. IT WON'T END THERE, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS OVERHEAD BRINGING ONE FINAL ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
2-4" FOR MOST AREAS, WITH 4-6" ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 8" OF RAINFALL. AS FORECASTS ARE
REFINED, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE UPDATED. THIS LEVEL OF
RAINFALL WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING IN SOME BASINS. THE RAIN WILL FINALLY END FOR A FEW DAYS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
LEVELS DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON WHEN SKIES
CLEAR, TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL POTENTIALLY SEE FROST OR A
FREEZE NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
INITIALLY VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING, THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 78 51 66 / 80 60 30 70
FSM 66 81 59 72 / 60 80 60 90
MLC 68 81 57 70 / 70 70 70 90
BVO 63 76 45 65 / 80 30 20 50
FYV 65 77 53 69 / 60 80 40 90
BYV 64 76 53 61 / 50 80 30 90
MKO 65 79 53 65 / 70 70 50 80
MIO 64 76 50 61 / 80 60 20 80
F10 65 79 52 63 / 70 60 50 80
HHW 66 78 60 72 / 60 80 90 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064>067-070-071-073.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page