427
FXUS64 KTSA 020247 CCA
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
947 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
- WIDESPREAD STORM WITH SEVERE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LIKELY TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE SEVERE AND TORNADO THREAT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY TRENDED DOWN THIS
EVENING AS THE CAPPING INVERSION CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
EASTERN OK. THUS, THE TORNADO WATCH THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR THE CWA
HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ADDITIONALLY, WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED POPS
THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM. MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY,
BUT DID LEAVE IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40%) POPS THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS OK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DRASTICALLY INCREASE AGAIN
ACROSS EASTERN OK BY OR AROUND 4 AM, GIVE/TAKE AN HOUR, AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LATEST HI-RES MODEL DATA INDICATE
STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL OK AND PUSH EASTWARD, LIKELY FORMING
INTO A BROKEN LINE OR QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) THAT
WILL EXTEND FROM THE KS/OK BORDER TO THE RED RIVER AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT,
STORMS THAT FORM AND STAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF PRODUCING ALL SEVERE
HAZARD MODES, INCLUDING TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD, POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE OK/AR BORDER AT THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM.
A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK THROUGH
4 AM, THOUGH CONDITIONS SEEM MARGINAL FOR THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN IT AS OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE LINE OF STORMS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM IS EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST, MAINLY
FOR WIND AND AND QLCS TORNADOES. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS
WILL DROP AND THE RAIN DIMINISH. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
IT STALLING OUT NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER WEDNESDAY, BUT
THIS IS A NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT FORECAST PROBLEM. REGARDLESS, RAIN
AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK LATE WEDNESDAY. RAIN/STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK, THEN SPREAD
OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE
EPS EFI IS REALLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHEAST OK THURSDAY, WITH A CAPE-
SHEAR EFI VALUE OF 1 AND A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 2. THIS IMPLIES
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH IT MAY OR MAY NOT
BE FULLY REALIZED GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL IN THE WARM SECTOR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY PERSIST AS FAR
NORTH AS I-40. DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, SOME FLOODING CONCERNS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST OK BY THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ACTIVITY REIGNITES AGAIN. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, PERHAPS AS FAR
NORTH AS THE I-44 CORRIDOR. WITH A WELL POSITIONED JET STREAK,
DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND SOLID LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION, THE STAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SET FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT
DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. PERHAPS OF GREATER CONCERN WILL
BE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN AREA RIVERS AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL. IT WON'T END THERE, HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS OVERHEAD BRINGING ONE FINAL ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
2-4" FOR MOST AREAS, WITH 4-6" ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE UP TO 8" OF RAINFALL. AS FORECASTS ARE
REFINED, THE FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE UPDATED. THIS LEVEL OF
RAINFALL WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST MODERATE RIVER
FLOODING IN SOME BASINS. THE RAIN WILL FINALLY END FOR A FEW DAYS
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
LEVELS DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON WHEN SKIES
CLEAR, TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS WILL POTENTIALLY SEE FROST OR A
FREEZE NEXT SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2025
INITIALLY VFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING, THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN GUSTY. LLWS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 78 51 66 / 80 60 30 70
FSM 66 81 59 72 / 60 80 60 90
MLC 68 81 57 70 / 70 70 70 90
BVO 63 76 45 65 / 80 30 20 50
FYV 65 77 53 69 / 60 80 40 90
BYV 64 76 53 61 / 50 80 30 90
MKO 65 79 53 65 / 70 70 50 80
MIO 64 76 50 61 / 80 60 20 80
F10 65 79 52 63 / 70 60 50 80
HHW 66 78 60 72 / 60 80 90 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-
064>067-070-071-073.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05
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