082
FXUS64 KTSA 021653
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1153 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1151 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR.
- AT LEAST LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIALS CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW, THE LINE IS MAINLY NON-SEVERE, BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NOON AS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, SHEAR, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING ARE ALL
PRESENT. RECENT MESOANALYSIS POINTS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK
AND WEST-CENTRAL AR AS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR GIVEN LIMITED
STORM ACTIVITY UP TO THIS POINT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE LINE, A FEW LIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND DEVELOPING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE HIGHEST SEVERE CHANCES WILL STAY
CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY, WHERE LARGE HAIL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PRIMARY
THREAT. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CUTOFF UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN SLOWLY ADVANCING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. THE THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HEAVY
RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOCUSED ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERING OVER THE REGION. CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES
INTO THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EFFICIENT, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED NEAR THE BOUNDARY, WHERE UPWARDS OF 6-8 INCHES OF RAIN
COULD FALL LOCALLY BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE ON SUNDAY.
FLOODING, BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING, WILL
LIKELY BECOME A CONCERN ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. A FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN COMING SHIFTS AS GUIDANCE HONES IN
ON THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH NOTABLY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING COULD APPROACH
FREEZING VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH ANY CEILINGS THINNING AND LIFTING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST, BREEZY AT TIMES WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15-25 KTS. OVERNIGHT
CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP AND LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FOR ALL AREAS BETWEEN
9-15Z. BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO 2 KFT WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 52 64 52 / 60 30 80 30
FSM 82 58 68 60 / 80 60 100 70
MLC 82 54 66 57 / 60 70 90 70
BVO 76 47 64 47 / 40 30 70 20
FYV 79 51 64 54 / 90 40 90 50
BYV 77 52 61 53 / 80 20 90 50
MKO 80 52 63 53 / 70 50 90 50
MIO 77 50 61 50 / 70 30 80 30
F10 79 51 63 53 / 60 50 90 60
HHW 79 58 71 61 / 80 80 90 90
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06
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