390
FXUS64 KTSA 030237
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 937 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
- SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL INCREASING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL
AR.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, WITH RAIN POSSIBLY
MIXING WITH SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. A FREEZE IS EXPECTED IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY OR MONDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
STORMS THAT LINGERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON HAVE SINCE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
RESULTING IN MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF AREA THIS
MORNING HAS STALLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR, EXTENDING
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, POSITIONING NEAR OR JUST NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS PSEUDO-STATIONARY/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN OK IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR
ALREADY IN PLACE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS IF THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN GET ORGANIZED.
MOST OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40 AND
CONCENTRATED ACROSS PUSHMATAHA, CHOCTAW, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
LE FLORE, LATIMER, AND PITTSBURG COUNTIES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUOUS WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING, FOCUSING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR. STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD NORTH
BY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LOWER THURSDAY THAN TODAY FOR SEVERAL REASONS. PERHAPS MOST
IMPORTANTLY, THE NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WOULD LIMIT OUR ACCESS TO THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIR. EVEN SO, A FEW EMBEDDED LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP, WITH WIND OR HAIL BEING RELATIVELY MORE LIKELY
THREATS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN DIMINISH THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET RAMPS UP. BY THIS TIME, THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL BE
LIFTING TO THE NORTH, PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM TULSA
THROUGH JOPLIN. AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL SEE A
DUAL SEVERE AND FLOOD THREAT. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS, WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS AT AND ABOVE 500 HPA WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH WILL AID IN STORM VENTILATION. BASED ON
THESE FACTORS, SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP. PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
INTEGRATED VAPOR TRANSPORT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK INTO WEST- CENTRAL AR.
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK MAY DRY OUT FRIDAY EVENING, BUT RAIN MAY
CONTINUE FOR SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE ARRIVES. ONCE AGAIN, ALL AREAS WILL SEE
RAIN, BUT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN FINALLY WINDS DOWN BY SUNDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST OK WILL SEE A STORM TOTAL OF 2-4", WITH 4-6"
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. IF LOCALIZED BANDING OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS PERSISTENT, LOCALLY UP TO 8" OF RAIN COULD OCCUR.
UNSURPRISINGLY, THE EPS EFI HAS VALUES OF 0.8 TO 0.9 FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY OVERLAPPING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BOTH RIVER AND FLASH FLOODING. NUMEROUS RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE FLOODING, WITH LOCALIZED MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING POSSIBLE IF ANY OF THESE CORRIDORS OF HEAVIEST RAIN
INTERSECT FLOOD SUSCEPTIBLE BASINS. FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE
EXPECTED FOR THE SAME REASONS. A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THREAT CORRIDORS, BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
LATER DEPENDING ON FORECAST TRENDS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE AIR WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COOL ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN MIXES OR TURNS RAIN TO
SNOW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-40 SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, IT NONETHELESS REPRESENTS A DRAMATIC SWING
IN SENSIBLE CONDITIONS. A MINOR FROST OR FREEZE MAY ALSO OCCUR
NORTH OF I-40 FOR TYPICALLY COLD LOCATIONS SUNDAY OR MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO DRY OUT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH PRIMARILY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SLOW TO WARM THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT, INITIALLY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KMLC AND KFSM, WITH A
SPREAD TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AT THE SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 51 62 50 61 / 20 80 50 100
FSM 55 65 57 77 / 50 90 70 100
MLC 52 64 56 71 / 70 90 70 100
BVO 45 62 46 58 / 20 80 30 100
FYV 48 64 52 73 / 30 80 60 100
BYV 50 62 51 69 / 30 80 50 100
MKO 51 63 53 66 / 30 80 60 100
MIO 49 59 50 60 / 20 80 40 100
F10 50 62 52 62 / 40 90 60 100
HHW 55 66 60 74 / 80 90 90 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ049-053-063-068>076.
AR...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page