503
FXUS64 KTSA 022347
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT THU MAY 2 2025
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN AR AND FAR SOUTHEAST
OK INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON )
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
LINGERING AREA OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON, AND
WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST OK. POOL OF MUCAPES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG ANALYZED OVER NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA. BEHIND IT A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A NOTABLY COOLER NIGHT UNDER CLEARING
SKIES, GENERALLY LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A WELCOME BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A PLEASANT,
ALMOST FALL-LIKE FEEL AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS. MOST AREAS
WILL DROP INTO THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS
COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO ADVANCE EAST, MARKING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR A ROBUST
PIECE OF ENERGY TO EJECT OUT OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE PATTERN DOESN'T APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY. FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE TOO CONCERNING, BUT GIVEN
RECENT CONDITIONS SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSISTING MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT MORE OF THE "HIT-AND-
MISS" VARIETY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF NW AR TERMINALS THROUGH
02Z WITH LESSENING IMPACTS, OTHERWISE TAFS WILL BE PRECIPITATION
FREE FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE ACROSS NW AR.
INCLUDED A TEMPO BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z AS DURATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF SITES WITH WINDS AT
ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 8-14KT ON
SATURDAY. AFTERNOON CU SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED ACROSS NE OK INTO
NW AR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 70 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 73 48 74 / 20 0 0 0
MLC 48 71 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 43 71 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 44 68 41 70 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 47 65 42 67 / 30 0 0 0
MKO 46 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 66 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 69 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 50 71 47 72 / 20 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24
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