521
FXUS64 KTSA 030518
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1218 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
- DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL PROBABLE, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
AS OF MID EVENING, A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN FRANKLIN CO AND FAR SOUTHERN LE FLORE COUNTY, THOUGH
WERE MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF THE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME, AN 850-MB
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER WHICH
WAS AIDING IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS WERE ACROSS SOUTHERN CHOCTAW CO. LASTLY, A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF AXIS WAS MAKING IT WAY THROUGH THE REGION AND HAD SPARKED A
FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY WILL EXIT THE CWA, WHILE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE RED RIVER UNTIL THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS CAN PUSH THE ELEVATED BOUNDARY
SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF AXIS IN
MISSOURI ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA AND
WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS AN ISOLATED POTENTIAL OF
A LINGERING SHOWER TO GET DOWN TO CARROLL CO, THOUGH WILL HOLD
POPS JUST BELOW MENTIONABLE CRITERIA.
BEHIND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS, CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE
SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG POTENTIAL LOW, WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME TRANSPORTING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS FOR LATE
EVENING/TONIGHT BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE, AND ALSO TWEAKED
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT TRENDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS AND THE
TIMING OF CLOUDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING
WELL AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A WELCOME BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH A PLEASANT,
ALMOST FALL-LIKE FEEL AS SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH UNDER AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS. MOST AREAS
WILL DROP INTO THE 40S SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW SHELTERED SPOTS
COULD EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A
CUTOFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BEGINS TO ADVANCE EAST, MARKING
A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR A ROBUST
PIECE OF ENERGY TO EJECT OUT OF THE LOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE PATTERN DOESN'T APPEAR CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER, THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL RETURN TUESDAY. FORECAST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE TOO CONCERNING, BUT GIVEN
RECENT CONDITIONS SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST BUT WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES PERSISTING MUCH OF THE WEEK, ALBEIT MORE OF THE "HIT-AND-
MISS" VARIETY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
PERIODIC CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS NW AR AND GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN A WINDOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NW AR
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS RISE AND/OR DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
AFTER CU FIELD NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 71 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 74 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 47 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 42 72 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 41 70 43 74 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 45 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 67 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 72 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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