499
FXUS64 KTSA 030758
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
258 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
A VERY PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, CURRENTLY OVERHEAD, WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-MORNING AND RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS INTO
THE REGION AND SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AR,
ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS MAY BECOME
MODERATELY BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING, BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOUGH ABNORMALLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TODAY, DID BUMP UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHAT
THE NBM SOLUTION HAD, CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM MID-UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTHWEST AR TO LOWER-70S
ELSEWHERE.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER PERSISTS TONIGHT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE CONUS, WITH EASTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST AR SITUATED JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
SUNDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN VERY PLEASANT WEATHER SUNDAY AND LIKELY THROUGH MOST, IF
NOT ALL, OF MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENINGS AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW-MID 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY (SLIGHTLY MORE MILD MONDAY), WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND BOUNCING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID
50S MONDAY NIGHT.
A PATTERN CHANGE AND A WETTER TREND WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BREAKDOWN. SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES OVER THE ROCKIES AND LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES. THERE WILL BE DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TUESDAY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MEANDERS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, PERHAPS LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AR, WHERE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-2
INCHES MAY FALL. WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THERE COULD BE A FLOODING
THREAT FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE AND CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AND WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LIKEWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL ALSO DEPEND ON WHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DOES, AS THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES IN MEDIUM-LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE. STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
LOW AT THIS TIME. BUT AGAIN, THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
PERIODIC CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS NW AR AND GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN A WINDOW FOR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS FAR NW AR
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS RISE AND/OR DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH AN
AFTER CU FIELD NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLIGHT LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 46 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 72 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 71 46 74 46 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 71 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 67 40 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 65 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 69 45 72 45 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 68 41 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 46 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 72 47 74 48 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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