002
FXUS64 KTSA 040450
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
- DRIER AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
ELEVATED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
AT MID EVENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED COMMON ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. IN RESPONSE, CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS VARYING FROM NORTH TO EAST WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH DRIER AIR HAVING MOVED INTO THE REGION, THESE CONDITIONS WERE
AIDING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60 DEG.
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR EARLY MAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FALLING INTO
THE 40S FOR LOWS. THE NORMAL COOL LOCATIONS IN FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS COULD POTENTIALLY TOUCH UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE. OVERALL
THE ONGOING FORECAST CONFIGURATION REPRESENTS THIS SET UP, AND
HAVE ONLY ADDED MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY INCHING UP, AS OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN
PLACE. THE SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY WIN
OUT DURING THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK, ALL THE WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, WILL BEGIN TO SEE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE SOUTH BY TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO WET WEATHER AS
WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER TX.
PATTERN IMPLIES RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN WITH AT LEAST
SCATTERED MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, AND IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE
OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AS OPPOSED TO SEVERE WEATHER. MUCH OF
THE AREA LOOKS IN LINE FOR ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH
HEAVIEST TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE GENERAL IDEA REMAINS
WEAKENING AND SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE EAST. SOME POSSIBILITY THAT
THE WARM SECTOR MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY SURGE NORTH WEDNESDAY BUT
OVERALL THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING LIMITED, AND
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BECOMING MUCH MORE HIT AND MISS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 72 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 47 74 49 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 74 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 41 73 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 40 70 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 71 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 41 69 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 72 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 47 75 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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