988
FXUS64 KTSA 041713
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- DRY WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST WHILE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ANOTHER CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAY IS IN STORE.
HIGHS YESTERDAY WERE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND (NBM),
AND I WOULD EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TODAY GIVEN NEAR FULL
INSOLATION. PREVIOUS FORECAST ALREADY LEANED TOWARD THE WARM END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM THE PLAN.
UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS OUT.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY AS MUCH OF
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR REMAINS SITUATED UNDERNEATH WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. A FEW
CUMULUS CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR, OTHERWISE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE TONIGHT AS A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS COOL AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS MORNING,
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S AGAIN UNDERNEATH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. REPOSEFUL WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER EASTERN OK AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO VEER MORE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST, BUT REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
RISE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST OK AND
WEST-CENTRAL AR, VARYING FROM THE MID-UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE.
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY MORNING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES OVER NM AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TAKES SHAPE. AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. TRENDS IN
MODELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW’S FORWARD PROPAGATION A BIT AS MULTIPLE VORT MAXIMUMS ROTATE
AROUND IT. AS SUCH, THE ONSET OF RAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL MID-
LATE MORNING TUESDAY. MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE GOOD AGREEMENT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN WEST/NORTHWEST
TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX
AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THIS
TIME, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
I-40 (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RED RIVER), WHERE CONSENSUS IN MODEL
DATA SHOW BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN, LOCALLY HIGHER IN SPOTS,
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH OF I-40 AS WELL. WITH SOILS STILL SATURATED FROM
RECENT RAINS, A FLOODING RISK MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MORE DETAILS TO COME IN LATER UPDATES.
MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY MIDWEEK, KEEPING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
STATIONED OVER THE PLAINS AS IT EVENTUALLY DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE AREA AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT EXACT DETAIL ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR NEXT WEEK, CHANCES
OVERALL STILL APPEAR LIMITED, BUT ARE NON-ZERO RIGHT NOW. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX TO NEAR THE RED
RIVER DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY. A NORTHWARD INCREASE IN
ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-40. SINCE THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
ELEVATED, TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER, WITH SUFFICIENT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, LIFT, AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE, STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR THE
RED RIVER. MODELS SHOW ANOTHER UPTICK OF INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-40, WHICH MAY BRING ANOTHER WINDOW OF STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT LATER.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 75 54 69 / 0 0 10 70
FSM 48 77 55 73 / 0 0 10 70
MLC 47 76 55 69 / 0 0 20 90
BVO 43 75 50 71 / 0 0 10 60
FYV 44 73 51 74 / 0 0 0 60
BYV 44 72 49 71 / 0 0 0 40
MKO 46 75 54 66 / 0 0 10 80
MIO 44 72 50 71 / 0 0 0 40
F10 47 74 54 64 / 0 0 20 90
HHW 49 76 57 64 / 0 0 30 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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