005
FXUS64 KTSA 041857
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
HIGH-AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY BUT SURELY PUNCHES EAST. NOT MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
UNTIL VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE MAIN LOW. THIS
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORCED NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS TEXAS. STILL EXPECTING MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT FROM
THIS EVENT VERSUS SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER THE WARM FRONT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK
LATE TUESDAY TO ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO A DEGREE. AS OF NOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY 2-3" THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-40 AND OFFSET FROM FOOTPRINT OF
THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION,
HOWEVER WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE NOTABLY WEAKER BY THIS TIME. STILL
SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH A LOW
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS ADD MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING
AND THUS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 75 53 69 / 0 0 0 70
FSM 48 77 55 73 / 0 0 0 70
MLC 47 76 56 69 / 0 0 20 90
BVO 44 75 49 71 / 0 0 0 60
FYV 44 73 50 74 / 0 0 0 60
BYV 44 72 49 71 / 0 0 0 40
MKO 46 74 54 66 / 0 0 10 80
MIO 45 73 49 71 / 0 0 0 40
F10 47 73 54 64 / 0 0 10 90
HHW 49 75 57 64 / 0 10 30 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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