483
FXUS64 KTSA 050519
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1219 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING RISK, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
ADDED SCATTERED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE TEMP / DEW POINT DEPRESSION FORECASTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES WARMER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN MAY 4 2025
HIGH-AMPLITUDE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN IS STILL FORECAST TO BREAK
DOWN IN THE COMING DAYS AS A CUTOFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SLOWLY BUT SURELY PUNCHES EAST. NOT MUCH IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
UNTIL VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY EJECTED FROM THE MAIN LOW. THIS
PATTERN BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS
WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORCED NORTH OF A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS TEXAS. STILL EXPECTING MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACT FROM
THIS EVENT VERSUS SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER THE WARM FRONT MAY
EVENTUALLY BE IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK
LATE TUESDAY TO ENHANCE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO A DEGREE. AS OF NOW
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, GENERALLY 2-3" THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT REMAIN FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-40 AND OFFSET FROM FOOTPRINT OF
THE RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AS THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE REGION,
HOWEVER WIND FIELDS SHOULD BE NOTABLY WEAKER BY THIS TIME. STILL
SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH A LOW
THREAT OF SEVERE. THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS ADD MOVES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING
AND THUS SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN EXACT DURATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 69 56 71 / 0 70 80 40
FSM 55 73 59 75 / 0 70 70 20
MLC 56 69 56 75 / 20 90 60 20
BVO 49 71 53 69 / 0 60 80 50
FYV 50 74 55 71 / 0 60 80 30
BYV 49 71 55 67 / 0 40 80 30
MKO 54 66 56 72 / 10 80 70 30
MIO 49 71 56 68 / 0 40 80 50
F10 54 64 56 73 / 10 90 70 30
HHW 57 64 59 76 / 30 100 50 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...07
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