077
FXUS64 KTSA 050803
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
303 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER AGAIN TODAY.
- HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLOODING RISK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.
VERY LIMITED SEVERE CHANCES FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAIN
THREATS. TORNADOES NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY ACROSS EASTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST AR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST/EAST-
SOUTHEAST. MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUD COVER BECOMING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH
WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGE --
GENERALLY MID-UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN AND IMPACT-FREE,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S, PERHAPS UPPER
40S IN THE NORTHERN-TIER COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE EARLY-MID MORNING TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PROGRESSES OVER NM. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER WEST TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VORT MAX
PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AHEAD OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TX THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY. THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY MID-LATE MORNING TUESDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR IN THE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL
IN DISAGREEMENT JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVY RAIN WILL EXTEND,
WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM SHOWING ALL OF THE CWA GETTING DOUSED, BUT
THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
412. EARLY RUNS OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE ALSO AT ODDS WITH EACH
OTHER WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY RAIN. WITH THAT SAID,
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A GRADIENT OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, NORTH-
TO-SOUTH, THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL HIGH THAT
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE
1-3” ARE EXPECTED. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHOCTAW AND
PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES FROM 7 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY,
WHERE/WHEN THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD/IMPACT ON TUESDAY, BUT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY LIFTED NORTHWARD FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-40. MAIN HAZARDS WITH ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL (UP TO 1”) AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 60
MPH). TORNADOES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT, RAINFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WON’T BE QUITE
AS HIGH AS ON TUESDAY, BUT HIT-AND-MISS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW MEANDERS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY DRIFT OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SIGNALS OF
INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DRIFTS
CLOSER AND OVERHEAD, BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHARPLY
DECREASE AND THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONSENSUS IN MODEL DATA SIGNIFY PLEASANT WEATHER RETURNS BY
SATURDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN EXACT DURATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 52 68 56 / 0 10 80 80
FSM 77 55 71 59 / 0 0 80 70
MLC 76 55 66 56 / 0 20 100 60
BVO 76 48 69 53 / 0 0 70 80
FYV 73 50 71 55 / 0 0 60 80
BYV 73 50 71 55 / 0 0 40 80
MKO 75 53 66 56 / 0 10 90 70
MIO 73 50 71 56 / 0 0 50 80
F10 74 53 64 56 / 0 10 100 70
HHW 76 57 63 59 / 0 30 100 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07
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