705
FXUS64 KTSA 051923
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
RISK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- SPOTTY RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PERSIST THRU FRIDAY.
- IT'S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER NICE WEATHER WEEKEND AHEAD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX, WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRIER EASTERLY WIND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION THRU THE DAY. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH A PV MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE BAJA.
AN INITIAL WAVE OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PRODUCED A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN
THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) FORECAST WOULD INDICATE. WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL APART WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
CAMS INDICATE, IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR SO
WILL THROW IN SOME LOW POPS DOWN IN SE OK FOR THE EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE PV MAX OVER THE
BAJA ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TONIGHT, WITH STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
EVENTUALLY, THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A BAND OF RAIN AND
STORMS AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS TX, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STAYING OUT OF OUR AREA, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED QUITE A BIT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE RED
RIVER. LESS INTENSE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING STORMS WILL LIMIT
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK AS WELL. THE HRRR HAS WORST CASE
1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, MORE LIKE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THERE, AND THIS IS WHERE THE FLOOD RISK
WOULD BE HIGHEST. THEREFORE, THE GOING FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS
IS.
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE POP FORECAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS FOR THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER FROM SW TO NE.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STORM CHANCES ARE
PRETTY SMALL IN THAT AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. WEAK SHEAR
NEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR THESE 2 DAYS, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT THIS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND GETTING ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. BY FRIDAY EVENING RAIN CHANCES
ARE DONE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, AND A QUIET AND TRANQUIL
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. TWO WEEKENDS OF NICE WEATHER IN A ROW IN
MAY? WE'LL TAKE IT.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. LIGHT WINDS AND INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS WILL BEGIN
TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH INCREASING RAIN/ THUNDER POTENTIAL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS E OK. THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES AND CEILING
REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 53 68 55 73 / 0 90 80 40
FSM 55 73 58 76 / 0 80 80 20
MLC 55 68 56 78 / 20 90 60 20
BVO 48 71 53 71 / 0 80 90 60
FYV 50 73 54 73 / 0 80 80 40
BYV 50 71 55 67 / 0 50 60 40
MKO 54 68 56 73 / 10 90 80 40
MIO 50 72 56 67 / 0 70 80 60
F10 54 66 56 73 / 10 90 70 40
HHW 57 64 59 76 / 20 100 50 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
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