771
FXUS64 KTSA 060543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LIMITED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD
RISK TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A LIMITED SEVERE RISK, MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- SPOTTY RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL PERSIST THRU FRIDAY.
- IT'S LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER NICE WEATHER WEEKEND AHEAD.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
THE GOING SHORT TERM FORECAST IS MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE. THE BAND
OF SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS DISSIPATED, SO
POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
(10-20%) CHANCE OF A SHOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OK, SLOWLY EXPANDING OVERNIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WARM FRONT LIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN TX, WITH SURFACE RIDGING STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A DRIER EASTERLY WIND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER
THE REGION THRU THE DAY. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS, WITH A PV MAX ROTATING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH OVER THE BAJA.
AN INITIAL WAVE OF MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PRODUCED A BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS SPREAD FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN
THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) FORECAST WOULD INDICATE. WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THAT THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY FALL APART WITH EASTWARD EXTENT AS
CAMS INDICATE, IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHERE THIS WILL OCCUR SO
WILL THROW IN SOME LOW POPS DOWN IN SE OK FOR THE EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WHILE THE PV MAX OVER THE
BAJA ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EJECTS INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL INCREASE BEGINNING
TONIGHT, WITH STORMS BREAKING OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
EVENTUALLY, THE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO A BAND OF RAIN AND
STORMS AND SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS TX, BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STAYING OUT OF OUR AREA, THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED QUITE A BIT AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS NEAR THE RED
RIVER. LESS INTENSE AND MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVING STORMS WILL LIMIT
THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK AS WELL. THE HRRR HAS WORST CASE
1 TO 1.5 INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, MORE LIKE 1.5 TO 2
INCHES DOWN CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR MAINLY DOWN THERE, AND THIS IS WHERE THE FLOOD RISK
WOULD BE HIGHEST. THEREFORE, THE GOING FLOOD WATCH WILL BE LEFT AS
IS.
THE MAIN IDEA FOR THE POP FORECAST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS FOR THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST OUT
OF THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS LOWER FROM SW TO NE.
LACY
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW APPROACHES AND SLOWLY MOVES
INTO THE REGION. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STORM CHANCES ARE
PRETTY SMALL IN THAT AREA WHICH WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. WEAK SHEAR
NEAR THE UPPER LOW WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR THESE 2 DAYS, BUT IT'S UNLIKELY
THAT THIS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONCERN.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHEARING OUT AND GETTING ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM
DIVING IN FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY DOWN IN THE SOUTH AND EAST. BY FRIDAY EVENING RAIN CHANCES
ARE DONE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, AND A QUIET AND TRANQUIL
WEEKEND IS IN STORE. TWO WEEKENDS OF NICE WEATHER IN A ROW IN
MAY? WE'LL TAKE IT.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS, MOSTLY OVER EASTERN
OK. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO TO FORECAST AREA MID-LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-40, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR
TWO NORTH OF I-40 IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THUNDER AT FSM AND MLC. PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR MAY
ACCOMPANY THE RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING. TRENDS IN MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT MOST TAF
SITES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING AT MOST SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 68 55 73 55 / 90 80 40 50
FSM 73 58 76 59 / 80 80 20 40
MLC 68 56 78 55 / 90 60 20 40
BVO 71 53 71 52 / 80 90 60 60
FYV 73 54 73 53 / 80 80 40 50
BYV 71 55 67 55 / 50 60 40 50
MKO 68 56 73 55 / 90 80 40 50
MIO 72 56 67 55 / 70 80 60 60
F10 66 56 73 54 / 90 70 40 50
HHW 64 59 76 58 / 100 50 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...67
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