362
FXUS64 KTSA 060822
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A LIMITED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ALSO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY.
- PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS W TX
WILL STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS IN AND NEAR FAR SE OK WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NORTHWARD ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE RETAINED BUT ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS. THE WARM SECTOR AND
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AGAIN FAVORING SE OK. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER SE KS BY WED AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FCST SOUNDINGS BY WED AFTERNOON INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER TO
ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS, THOUGH THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
PRECIP COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WED.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SUPPORTING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS, MOSTLY OVER EASTERN
OK. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO TO FORECAST AREA MID-LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME. THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-40, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY STORM OR
TWO NORTH OF I-40 IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED VCTS/PROB30 GROUPS
FOR THUNDER AT FSM AND MLC. PERIOD OF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR MAY
ACCOMPANY THE RAIN SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS BEYOND 00Z THIS EVENING. TRENDS IN MODEL
DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT MOST TAF
SITES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING AT MOST SITES. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 57 70 55 / 70 70 60 50
FSM 74 59 76 59 / 80 70 30 40
MLC 67 57 76 55 / 100 50 30 40
BVO 71 54 68 52 / 60 80 70 60
FYV 73 55 71 53 / 60 70 50 50
BYV 73 56 68 55 / 50 70 60 50
MKO 69 58 72 55 / 80 70 40 50
MIO 73 57 67 55 / 50 70 80 60
F10 65 57 73 54 / 90 60 40 50
HHW 64 60 76 58 / 100 40 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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