862
FXUS64 KTSA 061537
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A LIMITED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ALSO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 TO 50 MPH, AND A SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WHILE
EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE GRADUAL, A LEAD IMPULSE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A ANOTHER WET SPRING DAY IN E OK AND NW
AR, WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARM FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-40. HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER OUR AREA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD/ RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR OVER FAR SE OK AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT IN PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING TODAY'S STORM COMPLEX, LIKELY DUE
TO A WAKE LOW FEATURE. WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING THE BEGINNING STAGES
OF THIS ACROSS W-SW OK, WHERE 1 HR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED PER OKLAHOMA MESONET. WILL BLEND IN SOME CAMS
TO HELP CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL OVER OUR FA, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME
REQUIRED IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS W TX
WILL STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS IN AND NEAR FAR SE OK WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NORTHWARD ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE RETAINED BUT ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS. THE WARM SECTOR AND
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AGAIN FAVORING SE OK. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER SE KS BY WED AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FCST SOUNDINGS BY WED AFTERNOON INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER TO
ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS, THOUGH THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
PRECIP COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WED.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SUPPORTING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR AS RAIN, MIXED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, OVERSPREADS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TODAY. BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40, BUT DID INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL TAF SITES. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FURTHER DETERIORATING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MVFR TO IFR, AND PERHAPS EVEN LIFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE
AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT COULD BECOME GUSTY UNDERNEATH HEAVIER
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 57 70 55 / 80 70 60 50
FSM 74 59 76 59 / 80 70 30 40
MLC 67 57 76 55 / 100 50 30 40
BVO 71 54 68 52 / 60 80 70 60
FYV 73 55 71 53 / 60 70 50 50
BYV 73 56 68 55 / 50 70 60 50
MKO 69 58 72 55 / 90 70 40 50
MIO 73 57 67 55 / 50 70 80 60
F10 65 57 73 54 / 90 60 40 50
HHW 64 60 76 58 / 100 40 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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