865
FXUS64 KTSA 061754
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A LIMITED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND ALSO A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
- STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AS HIGH AS
35 TO 50 MPH, AND A SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. WHILE
EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL BE GRADUAL, A LEAD IMPULSE HAS ALLOWED FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A ANOTHER WET SPRING DAY IN E OK AND NW
AR, WITH A LIMITED RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WARM FRONT IS STILL PROJECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL STILL PERMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-40. HIGHEST SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARM FRONT. CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED OVER OUR AREA WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/ WIND GUSTS BEING
THE MAIN CONCERNS. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED BETWEEN NOON
AND 6 PM AS THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES EAST. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD/ RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS
STILL PROJECTED TO OCCUR OVER FAR SE OK AND THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
MAINTAINED AS IS FOR THE TIME BEING.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT IN PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING TODAY'S STORM COMPLEX, LIKELY DUE
TO A WAKE LOW FEATURE. WE MAY ALREADY BE SEEING THE BEGINNING STAGES
OF THIS ACROSS W-SW OK, WHERE 1 HR GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-45 MPH HAVE
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED PER OKLAHOMA MESONET. WILL BLEND IN SOME CAMS
TO HELP CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL OVER OUR FA, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. A SHORT-LIVED WIND ADVISORY MAY BECOME
REQUIRED IF SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS VERIFY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS W TX
WILL STEADILY SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AND MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS IN AND NEAR FAR SE OK WITH LIGHTER PRECIP AND
LOWER AMOUNTS NORTHWARD ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR. THE ONGOING FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE RETAINED BUT ANY FLASH FLOOD RISK IS LIKELY TO BE
ISOLATED WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS. THE WARM SECTOR AND
HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AGAIN FAVORING SE OK. PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
WANE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
REMAINING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER SE KS BY WED AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. FCST SOUNDINGS BY WED AFTERNOON INDICATE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER TO
ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS, THOUGH THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE OFFSET TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGHER
PRECIP COVERAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WED.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
SUPPORTING DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH COVERAGE
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHILE RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE
RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WARMER TEMPS AND NOTICEABLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY TO EXPAND
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. A COMPLEX OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH E OK AND NW AR THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SFC WINDS (GENERALLY 20-35 KTS) IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WAKE
LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY MORE RESTRICTED TO NE OK AND NW AR SITES. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR ALL SITES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS SE
OK AND W-CENTRAL AR SITES AS WELL. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL IMPACT MAINLY NE OK
AND NW AR SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 70 55 70 / 70 60 50 60
FSM 59 76 59 77 / 70 30 40 60
MLC 57 76 55 73 / 50 30 40 50
BVO 54 68 52 69 / 80 70 60 60
FYV 55 71 53 72 / 70 50 50 70
BYV 56 68 55 70 / 70 60 50 80
MKO 58 72 55 71 / 70 40 50 60
MIO 57 67 55 69 / 70 80 60 70
F10 57 73 54 70 / 60 40 50 60
HHW 60 76 58 74 / 40 20 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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