956
FXUS64 KTSA 061923
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
223 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
- STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE RAIN AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST. LOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS 35 TO 45
MPH.
- SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT. A FAIR WEATHER
WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
A BAND OF RAIN AND SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST BY
EVENING. WITH THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ENDING BEHIND THIS
PRECIP, THE INTENT IS TO CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY. THERE HAS
BEEN HINTS IN PREVIOUS HRRR RUNS OF SOME SPOTTY WAKE LOW GUSTY
WINDS OCCURRING BEHIND THE PRECIP, MUCH LIKE WHAT HAS OCCURRED IN
WESTERN OK EARLIER (40-45 MPH GUSTS). HOWEVER, RECENT MESONET OBS
TO OUR WEST HAVE TRENDED DOWN WITH GUST STRENGTH, SO WHILE WINDS
MAY STILL GET GUSTY IN SPOTS BEHIND THE PRECIP, IT WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE A BIG DEAL. THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
TONIGHT ACROSS NE OK IN ADVANCE OF UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER REGION. THE LATEST DATA
SUGGESTS THAT SBCAPE WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN OK AS THE COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT SPREAD OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY WHERE WE GET SOME
DAYTIME HEATING. SCATTERED STORMS ARE FORECAST BY THE HRRR ACROSS
NE OK DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY SPREADING
INTO NW AR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGER FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OK, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SOME
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
LACY
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MO OZARKS BY THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WERE MAINTAINED, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE LOW. THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH AND
WEST ON FRIDAY WHILE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE.
THE HIGHER SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST
AND THEN END BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DROPS DOWN INTO THE
ARKLATEX. THE MODELS TODAY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE SYSTEM CUTTING
OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THUS, SOME LOW SHOWER CHANCES
WERE KEPT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
THRU SUNDAY. WARMER TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER ARE FORECAST FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE IN
STORE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
LACY
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. A COMPLEX OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH E OK AND NW AR THIS
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY SFC WINDS (GENERALLY 20-35 KTS) IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING THIS AFTERNOON'S STORMS DUE TO THE FORMATION OF A WAKE
LOW. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY THIS EVENING/
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY MORE RESTRICTED TO NE OK AND NW AR SITES. IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR ALL SITES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED VSBYS ACROSS SE
OK AND W-CENTRAL AR SITES AS WELL. BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, CIGS
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPROVE INTO MVFR CATEGORY, THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL IMPACT MAINLY NE OK
AND NW AR SITES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 73 54 70 / 80 50 60 60
FSM 59 79 58 77 / 60 20 30 60
MLC 56 77 54 73 / 50 20 40 50
BVO 54 71 52 69 / 90 70 70 60
FYV 55 74 53 72 / 60 30 40 70
BYV 56 68 55 70 / 70 40 50 80
MKO 58 74 54 71 / 60 30 50 60
MIO 57 67 55 69 / 90 80 70 70
F10 57 74 54 70 / 70 30 50 60
HHW 60 75 56 74 / 50 10 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ049-053.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page