352
FXUS64 KTSA 070757
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
257 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND W/ LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AR.
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD CORE OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. A STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE
OK. A MORE NOTABLE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE W/ LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH INTENSITIES SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENT AND DURATION OF CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. PRECIP COVERAGE
WANES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BOTH DAYS W/ BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE A BRIEF
STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN AR AS THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
PASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TOWARD MORE TYPICAL MID MAY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY MID
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
IN SUMMARY, A VERY COMPLEX AND LOW-CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS
OCCURRING RIGHT NOW SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING HOURS TO IFR/LIFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY MID-
LATE MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TRIES TO GET GOING, LIFTING
CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR MOST TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
REGION, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT, BUT
VEER THROUGH THE MORNING, BECOMING SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 54 70 54 / 70 50 50 20
FSM 77 57 76 57 / 40 40 50 20
MLC 77 54 73 55 / 30 20 30 20
BVO 68 52 69 51 / 80 40 50 20
FYV 73 52 72 53 / 60 50 70 30
BYV 67 55 69 55 / 70 50 80 30
MKO 74 55 69 54 / 60 50 50 20
MIO 66 54 68 53 / 80 50 70 30
F10 74 54 69 54 / 50 40 40 20
HHW 77 56 73 56 / 0 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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